I-10
Interstate10
Severe
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
7:10 AM CST
Available loads increased 10.4% to 126,281, but the national market average fell to $2.86/mile from $2.95 yesterday. Growth is concentrated in heavy haul, flatbed and specialized freight rather than van, so rising total listings do not establish nationwide tightening. The Southeast remains the strongest brokerage opportunity, with a leading pressure score of +0.69: Birmingham is +3 density with four-day rates up 68%, while Montgomery is +3 with rates up 52%. Nearby Atlanta is +2 despite rates falling 34%, and Knoxville is -2 with rates down 46%, creating distinct pricing and procurement opportunities within the same region. Prioritize Birmingham-to-Atlanta outbound service and Knoxville-to-Montgomery capacity sourcing. Diesel has already declined for 14 consecutive days to $6.157/gallon, while falling fuel futures suggest additional cost relief is possible over the next one to two weeks. Today's report of trucking authority suspensions makes dispatch-time authority verification particularly important.
Tomorrow is Veterans Day, making today's permit and appointment checks especially important as heavy-haul listings rise 21.9%. Confirm each relevant jurisdiction's permit-office schedule and movement restrictions, along with shipper and receiver staffing, before promising Wednesday execution. Separate equipment availability from legal movement readiness: a committed tractor and trailer do not establish that an oversize shipment can depart on schedule.
Clear Phoenix-area weather through Thursday does not resolve Salt River crossing flooding caused by upstream dam releases; the warning continues through Wednesday morning. Obtain facility-specific approach instructions before dispatch rather than relying on a driver's normal route. With Phoenix at +2 density and rates up 55%, an access failure could turn a manageable detour into a costly replacement-truck purchase; confirm the route before locking the pickup appointment.
114 freight markets · load density as of Nov 10, 7:11 AM CT; spot rate change over the 4 days to Nov 9, 11:01 AM CT. Density runs from very cool (more trucks than loads) to very hot (more loads than trucks).
| Region | Pressure | Markets | Avg rate change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Southeast | +0.69 | 19 hot / 11 cool | +28% 4-day |
| 2. Mountain West | +0.58 | 2 hot / 4 cool | +87% 4-day |
| 3. South Central | +0.05 | 5 hot / 12 cool | +58% 4-day |
| 4. Midwest | -0.05 | 13 hot / 13 cool | +25% 4-day |
| 5. West Coast | -0.65 | 4 hot / 11 cool | +31% 4-day |
| 6. Southwest | -0.78 | 1 hot / 4 cool | +71% 4-day |
| 7. Northeast | -1.84 | 2 hot / 13 cool | -19% 4-day |
Pressure = average density level + 4-day rate change ÷ 50. Higher means tighter capacity and more pricing power.
Hottest markets
| Coolest markets
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rates rising fastest
| Rates falling fastest
|
Heating up since yesterday: Little Rock, AR (+5), Grand Rapids, MI (+2), Fort Smith, AR (+2), Charleston, SC (+2), Jacksonville, FL (+2), Toledo, OH (+2)
| Market type | Strongest examples | Broker play |
|---|---|---|
| Tightening (hot + rates rising) | Birmingham, AL (+3, +68%), Montgomery, AL (+3, +52%), Little Rock, AR (+3, +40%), Salt Lake City, UT (+2, ≥+100%), Portland, OR (+2, +73%), Phoenix, AZ (+2, +55%) | Shippers need trucks and pay more. Quote up with short validity, cover early, prioritize outbound sales. |
| Rates lagging demand (hot + rates flat/falling) | Richmond, VA (+2, -42%), Atlanta, GA (+2, -34%), Memphis, TN (+2, +0%), Columbus, OH (+1, -44%), Greensboro, NC (+1, -14%), Wilmington, NC (+1, +0%) | More loads than trucks but rates have not caught up yet. Lock carriers at today's price before rates firm. |
| Rate spike without volume (cool + rates rising) | Amarillo, TX (-4, ≥+100%), Billings, MT (-4, ≥+100%), Lubbock, TX (-4, +85%), Albuquerque, NM (-4, +75%), Tucson, AZ (-4, +65%), Fargo, ND (-4, +55%) | Rates jumped without load pressure; expect them to revert. Avoid long buy commitments, check for a local cause. |
| Buyer's market (cool + rates flat/falling) | Scranton, PA (-4, -85%), Peoria, IL (-4, -26%), Cedar Rapids, IA (-4, +0%), Salinas, CA (-4, +0%), Syracuse, NY (-3, -18%), Norfolk, VA (-3, -8%) | Trucks are plentiful and cheap. Best place to buy capacity and to pitch shippers on savings; aggressive bids win. |
The Southeast combines the strongest regional pressure score with closely spaced markets showing sharply different pricing behavior. Alabama is the clearest tightening cluster: Birmingham is +3 density with four-day rates up 68%, and Montgomery is +3 with rates up 52%; both have remained hot for five days. Atlanta is +2 but rates are down 34%, Memphis is +2 with flat rates, and Knoxville is -2 with rates down 46%. The maps show an eastern and southern concentration of hot pockets against much cooler areas across the interior West and Northeast; within the Southeast, neighboring markets are not moving together. National average softness therefore creates a quoting trap: it may improve purchases in Knoxville without reducing the urgency or cost of securing Birmingham outbound capacity.
Birmingham, AL → Atlanta, GA: Birmingham is very hot at +3 density with four-day rates up 68%, while Atlanta is hot at +2 with rates down 34%. Birmingham's density increased one level since yesterday and has remained hot for five days, supporting urgency on confirmed outbound requirements. Atlanta's hot destination profile may improve carriers' reload expectations, although its falling market rates mean an attractive reload is not guaranteed. November retail and manufacturing shipping cycles are relevant customer segments, but the supplied data does not identify this lane's commodity mix or current lane rate.
Origin Birmingham, AL: very hot +3 +68% 4-day → Destination Atlanta, GA: hot +2 -34% 4-day
Knoxville, TN → Montgomery, AL: Knoxville is cool at -2 density with four-day rates down 46%, while Montgomery is very hot at +3 with rates up 52%. Knoxville cooled another density level since yesterday and has remained cool for five days, creating a stronger buyer-side sourcing signal than Birmingham. Montgomery's five-day hot streak may attract carriers seeking onward freight and reduce their need for a destination penalty. Seasonal retail and manufacturing traffic provide prospecting categories, but this lane's shipment volume and equipment-specific rates are not supplied.
Origin Knoxville, TN: cool -2 -46% 4-day → Destination Montgomery, AL: very hot +3 +52% 4-day
Knoxville-to-Montgomery offers a two-load opportunity: source in Knoxville (-2 density, rates down 46%) and secure a compatible Montgomery outbound shipment (+3, up 52%) before negotiating the inbound purchase. A confirmed follow-on load gives the carrier a concrete reason to sharpen its inbound offer. Birmingham-to-Atlanta needs a different approach: Atlanta is hot (+2), but rates are down 34%, so price the Birmingham departure against its +3 density and 68% rate increase without budgeting an unverified Atlanta reload benefit.
Little Rock jumped five density levels to +3, with rates up 40%, creating a hot Arkansas pocket beside cooler western markets. Fort Smith and Springdale are both -2 despite rates rising 65%. For uncovered Little Rock pickups, compare local offers with equipment-qualified trucks available to reposition from those markets; include deadhead, driver hours and pickup feasibility in the comparison. This is a targeted sourcing opportunity, not evidence that the broader South Central region needs a blanket premium.
Available loads increased 10.4% to 126,281, while the national market average declined from $2.95 to $2.86/mile. Compared with the supplied week-ago checkpoint, listings are higher than 120,861 but average pricing is below $2.90. These observations point to greater activity without confirming broad pricing power. The equipment mix provides important context. Heavy haul listings increased 21.9%, flatbed 15.4% and specialized 13.6%, while van declined 2.2% and reefer increased only 0.9%. The total-load increase therefore does not describe the experience of every equipment segment. It also does not measure available trucks, driver hours or tender acceptance. Posted averages exceed paid averages across all six categories: $0.02/mile for flatbed, $0.03 for heavy haul, $0.04 for LTL/partial, $0.06 for reefer, $0.07 for van and $0.08 for specialized. These are differences between aggregate averages, not matched transactions or verified brokerage margins. Their size may reflect shipment mix and quoting behavior as well as procurement conditions. The reported $239.3 million opportunity measure and 41,047 intraday movements indicate activity, not realizable brokerage revenue or a full-day volume total. Together, the supplied observations support a segmented reading of the market rather than an inference that higher listings alone mean tighter nationwide capacity.
Reefer paid rates are $3.38/mile versus $3.44 posted, with 10,172 available loads and 2,378 reported movements. Listings increased 0.9% from yesterday, while the paid average is only $0.01/mile above the prior report's $3.37. This combination points to relatively steady national pricing rather than a verified demand shock. The November produce context identifies moderate demand, with cranberries, sweet potatoes, pears, citrus and pomegranates in transit. North Carolina, Wisconsin and Washington are important origins, and winter corridors in Florida, California and Arizona are active but not stressed. These seasonal observations are consistent with continuing reefer demand without establishing widespread equipment scarcity. Origin conditions differ substantially in the all-equipment maps. Greensboro is +1 density with rates down 14%; Green Bay is -2 with rates up 55%; Yakima is -4 with rates up 48%; and Salinas is -4 with flat rates. These contrasts indicate that a produce origin can coexist with cool general-market capacity or rising market rates. They do not independently establish reefer-specific availability. Current cold-storage reporting describes trucking and cost pressures within Lineage's business. That company-level signal can coexist with the relatively stable national reefer average because facility operations, service requirements and shipment mix differ. The supplied data does not establish that those pressures have become a nationwide reefer capacity shortage.
Retail diesel is $6.157/gallon after 14 consecutive daily declines. It is at the supplied 15-day low and $0.195 below the October 27 high. The week-over-week decrease is $0.130/gallon, confirming that retail relief is already occurring rather than remaining a prospective event. December diesel futures are $4.0462/gallon, down 4.00% from the prior close and 10.69% over five trading days. The approximately $2.11 retail-minus-futures spread reflects different points in the supply chain and includes taxes, distribution costs, margins and timing. It cannot be interpreted as a directly recoverable carrier saving or an equivalent pending retail decline. Because futures typically lead retail by several days, the current decline suggests potential additional pump-cost relief over the next one to two weeks, although the amount and timing remain uncertain. Contractual fuel surcharges may respond on a different schedule because their benchmarks and reset provisions vary. Fuel and freight pricing are also moving at different geographic scales. National retail fuel is declining, but Birmingham is +3 density with four-day freight rates up 68%, while Knoxville is -2 with rates down 46%. These observations show why lower fuel expense does not, by itself, establish softer linehaul pricing at every origin.
Sell Alabama outbound coverage, buy Knoxville-origin capacity, and treat Little Rock as today’s fastest-changing recovery market. The maps show localized pricing power—not a uniform national capacity squeeze.
The density map shows hot Southeast pockets against a broadly cooler Northeast, Plains and western interior. The rate map shows widespread western increases despite that cool density. This distinction separates genuine coverage pressure from markets where recent price increases deserve competitive testing.
| Priority | Verified market evidence | Immediate brokerage action |
|---|---|---|
| Primary sales: Southeast | Pressure +0.69; 19 hot / 11 cool markets. Birmingham +3 / +68%, Montgomery +3 / +52% | Sell qualified coverage and appointment execution; avoid national-average pricing for Alabama departures. |
| Fastest-change watch: Arkansas | Little Rock +3 / +40%, up five density levels | Refresh uncovered purchases immediately. Test nearby repositioning rather than applying a South Central-wide premium. |
| Selective Midwest sales | Joliet +2 / +53% versus Peoria −4 / −26% and Cedar Rapids −4 / flat | Sell Joliet outbound; compare cooler-origin trucks after total repositioning costs. |
| Buyer-side prospecting: Northeast | Pressure −1.84; Scranton −4 / −85%, Syracuse −3 / −18% | Request competing qualified offers and offer shipment-specific savings—not unsupported percentage reductions. |
| Protect isolated western hot origins | Salt Lake City +2 / ≥+100%, Portland +2 / +73%, Phoenix +2 / +55% | Cover these origins separately from their cooler surroundings. |
| Challenge cool-market price spikes | Amarillo and Billings −4 / ≥+100%; Albuquerque −4 / +75% | Rebid comparable scope and ask what operational constraint drives the price. Do not assume either scarcity or an inevitable reversal. |
A hot destination strengthens the case for a carrier-positioning concession; a cool destination creates potential return-positioning premium exposure. Neither establishes a lane price by itself.
| Lane | Origin → destination: density / four-day rates | Purchase and pricing approach |
|---|---|---|
| Knoxville → Montgomery | −2 / −46% → +3 / +52% | First buying test. Seek local trucks and a destination-positioning concession. A confirmed compatible Alabama outbound load strengthens the negotiation. |
| Birmingham → Atlanta | +3 / +68% → +2 / −34% | First outbound sales focus. Budget Birmingham’s departure pressure. Request destination value, but do not assume Atlanta reloads command strong prices. |
| Montgomery → Knoxville | +3 / +52% → −2 / −46% | Premium-exposure direction. Protect the hot-origin purchase plus possible weak-destination repositioning cost. Do not reverse the inbound discount thesis. |
| Peoria → Joliet | −4 / −26% → +2 / +53% | Selective Midwest sourcing. Test a positioning concession; elapsed time and minimum compensation can dominate shorter-haul pricing. |
| Fort Smith → Little Rock | −2 / +65% → +3 / +40% | Targeted positioning play. Seek a revenue load into Little Rock where available; otherwise compare the full empty-repositioning purchase. |
| Seattle → Portland, Oregon | −1 / −18% → +2 / +73% | Secondary western buying test. Seek qualified Seattle-origin offers into Portland’s stronger outbound market. |
| Portland, Oregon → Seattle | +2 / +73% → −1 / −18% | Protect directional premium exposure. A strong origin and softer destination can raise the carrier’s required compensation. |
Make destination value usable.
Negotiate the sequence, not an imaginary round trip.
Keep fallback sourcing economically honest.
Use these national averages as screening benchmarks—not lane quotes or guaranteed buying targets. The maps cover all equipment; procurement must still establish the actual trailer and driver availability.
| Equipment | Available loads | Posted/mi | Paid/mi | Posted minus paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van | 25,892 | $2.83 | $2.76 | $0.07 |
| Reefer | 10,172 | $3.44 | $3.38 | $0.06 |
| Flatbed | 44,079 | $2.98 | $2.96 | $0.02 |
| Heavy haul | 22,572 | $3.23 | $3.20 | $0.03 |
| Specialized | 15,782 | $3.12 | $3.04 | $0.08 |
| LTL/partial | 7,784 | $1.72 | $1.68 | $0.04 |
The pricing discipline: posted-minus-paid differences compare aggregate averages. They do not measure matched transactions, accessible discounts or realizable brokerage profit.
Reefer demand is moderate, with active but unstressed winter produce corridors. National paid pricing is $3.38/mile, with 10,172 available loads and listings up 0.9%.
Prospect actual November shipping points.
Use local contrasts to guide carrier calls.
Do not give all Florida destinations the same reload allowance.
Make readiness part of the sale.
Diesel is $6.157/gallon, and retail relief is already underway. Lower fuel costs help carrier cash outlays, but do not erase empty miles, waiting or hot-origin competition.
At an illustrative 6 miles per gallon, 100 empty miles costs approximately $102.62 in fuel alone. Driver time, maintenance and lost utilization are additional.
Build quotes from executable costs.
Limit exposure rather than applying arbitrary market markups.
Trade certainty before repeatedly demanding a lower price.
Match the sales message to the customer’s actual problem.
Veterans Day: confirm Wednesday readiness before promising departure.
Phoenix: clear weather does not clear dam-release flooding.
Texas: check the final approach, not just the linehaul.
DeSoto County, Florida: verify receiving access.
Carrier verification: do not translate suspension headlines into truck-loss estimates.
| Sequence | Action | Success measure |
|---|---|---|
| First: protect commitments | Review uncovered Birmingham, Montgomery, Little Rock, Joliet, Salt Lake City, Portland and Phoenix shipments | Each high-consequence shipment has qualified coverage or a documented escalation owner and decision point. |
| Next: run procurement tests | Start with Knoxville → Montgomery; selectively test Peoria → Joliet and Seattle → Portland | Apparent savings survive empty-mile, appointment, equipment and minimum-charge checks. |
| Then: sell specific coverage | Call shipment-ready Alabama and Little Rock accounts with executable options | Qualified shipments and expected contribution—not call count alone. |
| Before handoff: clear release gates | Confirm Wednesday permits, receiving, flood approaches, authority and insurance | No shipment depends on an assumed approval, opening or reload. |
Bottom line: today’s advantage is connecting cool-origin buying with hot-market outbound freight—without confusing a promising map pattern with a confirmed truck, reload or legal movement window.
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