📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
7:00 AM CST
📊 Top-Line Summary
Spot market momentum continues to build midweek with total available loads climbing to 130,875, a steady increase from yesterday's 129,156, pushing total market opportunity to $161.6M. The standout trend today is the aggressive pricing in the reefer sector, where paid rates ($2.66/mile) are outpacing posted averages ($2.64/mile), signaling urgent demand for temperature-controlled capacity likely driven by freeze protection needs in the Northeast and Midwest. While flatbed volume remains the dominant volume driver (53,400 loads), rates have normalized with paid rates slightly under posted, suggesting a balanced market. Brokers should prioritize reefer freight for margin opportunities and monitor the severe winter weather impacting the Rockies and Sierra Nevada ranges, which will likely disrupt West Coast outbound flows over the next 48 hours.
⛽ Diesel Price Analysis
AAA Historical Price Comparison
🌦️ Weather & Seasonal Intelligence
Current Major Weather Events:
- Sierra Nevada & Yosemite Winter Storm (California (CA, Yosemite, Upper San Joaquin)): Heavy snow (12-24 inches) and gusts up to 50 mph will severely impact travel on mountain passes, likely delaying freight moving in/out of Central California.
- Rockies Winter Storm & Heavy Snow (Colorado/Wyoming (CO, Park Range; WY, Sierra Madre Range)): Major accumulations (up to 20 inches) will make travel difficult to impossible on high-elevation routes, potentially disrupting I-80 and I-70 corridors.
- Extreme Arctic Blizzard Conditions (Alaska (AK, Bering Strait, Arctic Coast)): Extreme cold (-70 wind chill) and blizzard conditions with 65 mph gusts will halt all freight operations and create life-threatening conditions for any transport.
💰 Financial Market Indicators
- Diesel Futures: Diesel prices are inching upward, putting renewed pressure on carrier operating costs after a period of stability.
- Carrier Financial Health: The continued spread between paid and posted rates in the van and reefer sectors suggests carriers are successfully leveraging market conditions to maintain profitability despite rising costs.
- Economic Indicators: Strong spot market volumes midweek indicate resilient freight demand, particularly in industrial and temperature-controlled sectors.
📰 Impactful News Analysis
-
Hapag-Lloyd Earnings Drop Signals Global Rate Softening 🔗:
While ocean rates are falling due to overcapacity, this could lead to increased transloading opportunities as shippers look to move cheaper imports quickly inland. Brokers should monitor port markets for potential volume spikes.
-
New Lighting Exemption Requests Could Impact Equipment Standards 🔗:
Grote's petition for pulsating brake lights aims to improve safety. If approved, this could become a standard carrier selling point for safety-conscious shippers, though immediate operational impact is low.
-
FMCSA & Law Enforcement Removal of Foreign Drivers 🔗:
Operation SafeDRIVE has removed hundreds of drivers and vehicles. Brokers should be vigilant about vetting carriers, especially in border states, as capacity in those specific pockets may tighten unexpectedly.
-
Proposed Bill to Allow Inmate CDL Training 🔗:
This long-term initiative to reduce the driver shortage by training inmates could eventually inject new capacity into the market, but brokers will need to navigate shipper requirements regarding driver background checks.
🔍 Competitive Intelligence
- Digital Load Board Trends: Real-time data shows a clear divergence: Reefer and Van paid rates are exceeding posted rates, signaling a 'carrier's market' in those sectors, while Flatbed paid rates are slightly below posted, indicating a 'broker's market'.
- Capacity Alerts: Capacity is tightening in the Pacific Northwest and Rockies due to incoming winter storms. Expect carriers to demand premiums to enter these zones or refuse loads entirely.
- Technology Disruptions: The push for safety tech exemptions (lighting) and autonomous enforcement (SafeDRIVE) highlights a trend toward stricter compliance and higher equipment standards, potentially squeezing out marginal carriers.
👥 Customer Sector Analysis
- Retail: Retail replenishment remains steady, driving the consistent van volume we are seeing midweek.
- Manufacturing: Industrial demand is supporting the high flatbed load counts, particularly in the South and Midwest.
- Agriculture: Produce and freeze-protection freight are the primary drivers of the reefer rate premiums, especially for temperature-sensitive goods moving through colder regions.
- Automotive: Auto parts movement remains stable, contributing to the baseline van volume.
🗺️ Regional & Lane Analysis
📍 Primary Region Focus: Southeast Region
The Southeast remains a stronghold for broker profitability due to a favorable balance of agricultural exports and construction demand. With weather relatively milder compared to the storm-battered West and freezing Northeast, freight flow is consistent. However, capacity is tightening as carriers are reluctant to head North into colder weather without significant rate incentives.
🛣️ Key Lane Watch
Atlanta, GA → Columbus, OH:
This lane is experiencing upward rate pressure as carriers demand premiums to head into the colder Midwest. Van capacity is tightening as drivers prefer to stay in the warmer southern regions. Demand is steady, driven by retail replenishment and industrial goods.
Jacksonville, FL → Charlotte, NC:
A high-volume regional lane with stable demand. Flatbed activity is strong due to construction materials moving north. Rates are competitive, but capacity is generally available.
🚨 Actionable Alerts
Rate Spike Warnings:
- Reefer loads originating in the Midwest/Northeast requiring Freeze Protection (PFF).
- Outbound California lanes crossing the Sierras due to winter storm delays.
Capacity Shortage Alerts:
- Reefer capacity is tightest nationally ($0.02 premium paid vs posted). Specialized flatbed capacity is also seeing localized tightness.
Opportunity Zones:
- Southeast regional flatbed lanes.
- Midwest outbound van loads where carriers are looking to leave cold weather.
🎯 Strategic Recommendations for Today
💼 For Customer Sales:
Narrative: Market conditions are shifting. We are seeing paid rates exceed posted averages in Van and Reefer sectors, indicating effective capacity is tighter than it looks. We need to price in weather risks for any freight crossing the Rockies or entering the Northeast.
Action: Review all active quotes for lanes touching CO, WY, or CA mountains. Add weather contingency buffers to pricing.
🚛 For Carrier Reps:
Sourcing Focus: Focus on securing reefer capacity for the rest of the week NOW. The rate spread indicates they are in high demand.
Negotiation Leverage: For flatbed, use the stabilizing rates to negotiate harder—the market has cooled slightly from yesterday. For van/reefer, sell the 'safe route' vs. weather-impacted lanes.
🔑 Executive Signal Summary
- Reefer is today’s profit center; lock Protect From Freeze (PFF) capacity early and itemize cold-weather costs
- Paid $2.66/mi vs posted $2.64/mi (+$0.02). Small pool (7,744 loads) and storms in Rockies/Sierras are delaying equipment and boosting premiums.
- Vans are tighter than they look; sell reliability bundles and weather-safe routing
- Paid $2.29/mi vs posted $2.21/mi (+$0.08). Avoid storm corridors and quote conservatively on long-hauls crossing the Rockies or heading into the Northeast.
- Flatbed is a broker’s market by a hair; win on service, not rate games
- Paid $2.39/mi vs posted $2.40/mi (−$0.01). Focus on schedule control and site readiness in high-volume Southeast lanes.
- Heavy haul carriers hold leverage; pre-clear everything and book early
- Paid $2.50/mi vs posted $2.43/mi (+$0.07). Sell permits/escort readiness and route surveys to defend shipper rate.
- Diesel is rising; align FSC (Fuel Surcharge) and expect firmer carrier stances
- AAA national diesel: $3.667/gal. Itemize winterization and fuel impacts to protect margin.
- Weather risk is real in CA Sierras and the Rockies; add clauses, pad ETAs, and reroute
- Expect 24–48 hour disruption on I-80/I-70 mountain passes; carriers will demand premiums or refuse.
- Total loads: 130,875 (Yesterday 129,156; +1.3%)
- Market opportunity: $161.6M
- Market average rate: $2.27/mi (range $1.49–$2.66)
- Diesel (AAA): $3.667/gal
- Van: 20,694 loads | Posted $2.21/mi | Paid $2.29/mi
- Reefer: 7,744 loads | Posted $2.64/mi | Paid $2.66/mi
- Flatbed: 53,400 loads | Posted $2.40/mi | Paid $2.39/mi
- Heavy Haul: 27,256 loads | Posted $2.43/mi | Paid $2.50/mi
- Specialized: 14,188 loads | Posted $2.32/mi | Paid $2.31/mi
- LTL/Partial: 7,593 loads | Posted $1.49/mi | Paid $1.56/mi
- Note: OTRI (Outbound Tender Rejection Index) remains elevated in temp-control; expect spillover tightness in spot.
🌦 Weather-to-Freight Playbook (24–72 Hours)
- Sierra Nevada & Yosemite winter storm (CA):
- Impact: Chain controls, 12–24” snow, 50 mph gusts; delays for Central CA flows crossing passes.
- Actions:
- Reroute cross-state moves via I-5 where feasible; split tenders to avoid pass dependency.
- Add weather clauses: “No punitive LDs during declared closures”; pre-approve layover/detention.
- Rockies (CO/WY) winter storm:
- Impact: Up to 20” at elevation; I-70/I-80 disruptions; carriers avoid exposure.
- Actions:
- Price risk into NE/Midwest runs, especially PFF; pad ETAs 6–18 hours.
- Pre-sell southbound reloads to attract carriers into cold geographies.
- Arctic blizzard (AK coast):
- Impact: Operational halts; trickle-down delays to West Coast consolidations.
- Actions: Buffer intermodal handoffs; manage expectations for AK-linked legs.
- Southeast (milder):
- Impact: Stable operations; inbound demand from retail/construction.
- Actions: Lean into SE outbound for margin predictability and faster turns.
🚀 Do-This-Now Profit Plays
- Reefer PFF into Midwest/Northeast
- Tactics:
- Itemize PFF (heater use, additives, continuous mode) and show value with photo/time-stamped temp logs on BOL.
- Anchor buys near paid levels where weather risk applies; sell at a visible premium over posted when SOPs and risk apply.
- Bundle a return (south/east) to reduce carrier fear premium and hold buy-side cost.
- Target GM: 14–20% with zero temp claims and documented SOPs.
- Van reliability bundles (avoid storm corridors)
- Tactics:
- Offer 2–3 load calendars per driver in safer corridors; pay slightly above posted to secure consistency.
- Price conservatively on CA↔Mountain West and NE lanes; pad transit vs. promising OTIF on thin ice.
- Target GM: 12–16% with ≤3% fall-offs.
- Flatbed schedule control over nickels
- Tactics:
- Pre-qualify sites (crane windows, tarping zones, staging) and market appointment certainty.
- Negotiate buys at/just under posted; sell risk reduction (no missed cranes) to justify shipper linehaul.
- Target GM: 9–12% with documented site-readiness wins.
- Heavy haul discipline
- Tactics:
- Pre-clear permits/escorts/route surveys before quoting; book early—carriers have a +$0.07 advantage today.
- Sell expertise (pilot car coordination, curfews, bridge clearances) to protect rate and margin.
- Target GM: 12–15% with zero compliance misses.
- LTL/Partial arbitrage pockets
- Signal: Paid $1.56/mi vs posted $1.49/mi (+$0.07).
- Tactics: Curate multi-stop partials on flatbeds/dry vans to beat LTL transit in SE/Mid-South; charge premium for speed.
🗺 Regional & Lane Plays
- Primary Focus: Southeast (broker-favorable)
- Atlanta, GA → Columbus, OH (Van):
- Upward pressure northbound; sell winter-safe routing and book CMH→ATL reloads to tame buy-side cost.
- Jacksonville, FL → Charlotte, NC (Flatbed):
- Construction-fed demand; win on appointment control and tarp compliance; hold buys near posted.
- Lakeland, FL → Midwest (Reefer, PFF as needed):
- Position heater-capable units; guarantee return southbound to reduce premium.
- West Coast caution lanes
- Central CA → NV/UT/CO (All modes):
- Avoid Sierra crossings; route via I-5 or hold until storm passes; insert weather clauses.
- Cold-to-warm “escape” plays
- Chicago/Columbus → Southeast (Van/Reefer):
- Carriers eager to exit cold; negotiate buys near posted with guaranteed reloads in GA/TN/AL.
💵 Pricing and Margin Control
- Anchor to the national average $2.27/mi, then add/subtract for mode, weather, and corridor risk.
- Align FSC to $3.667/gal diesel; itemize winterization (PFF, additives) rather than burying in linehaul.
- Use spreads with intent:
- Reefer +$0.02 (paid>posted): Pay for SOP-compliant carriers; sell premium on risk and documentation.
- Van +$0.08: Buy consistency with calendars; sell OTIF (On-Time In-Full) in storm week.
- Flatbed −$0.01 (buyer edge): Keep buys disciplined; monetize schedule certainty to shippers.
- Heavy haul +$0.07 (carrier edge): Quote only after feasibility checks; defend rate with compliance scope.
- LTL/Partial +$0.07: Capture expedited partials for time-sensitive shippers.
🤝 Carrier Ops & Negotiation Talk Tracks
- Reefer (PFF)
- Ask: “Can you run continuous mode with calibrated unit and provide photo-stamped temp logs at PU/DEL?”
- Offer: “We’ll cover additive and layover if closures hit; return southbound reload pre-booked.”
- Van (reliability)
- Ask: “Open to a 3-load sequence avoiding Rockies/NE weather?”
- Offer: “Tight appointment plan, clustered consignees, minimum deadhead—keep your clock clean.”
- Flatbed (service)
- Ask: “Confirm tarp size, edge protection, and crane window flexibility?”
- Offer: “We control site readiness and loader window—no wasted time or re-tarps.”
- Heavy haul (compliance)
- Ask: “Equipment photos, axle spacings, pilot car availability, and curfew experience for target states?”
- Offer: “Permits and escorts are queued; we’ll stage overnight parking and fuel stops within curfews.”
🛡 Risk, Compliance, and SOPs
- Carrier vetting (non-negotiable): Active insurance, authority, BASICs (FMCSA safety), recent clean inspections, ELD (Electronic Logging Device) compliance; callback verification on banking/dispatch changes; screen for chameleon carriers.
- Contract armor: Add “no punitive LDs during declared closures,” pre-approved detention/layover, and explicit PFF requirements on rate cons.
- Temp-control audit: Note continuous mode and set-point on BOL; require photo/time-stamped reefer display at PU/DEL; verify fuel.
- Border/compliance pockets: Recent enforcement sweeps tightened capacity—expect firmer pricing near border states; double-check CDL and equipment docs.
🔭 24–72 Hour Scenarios (Probability-Weighted)
- Base case (60%): Reefer premiums persist; van tightness centered on cold corridors; flatbed stays balanced.
- Move: Front-load PFF bookings by late morning; expand van calendars; hold flatbed buys near posted and sell service.
- Storm escalation (25%): Sierra/Rockies closures extend; PNW tightens; inbound NE gets colder.
- Move: Lift PFF surcharges; restrict NE-bound tenders to SOP-proven carriers; increase ETA buffers; throttle cross-mountain tenders.
- Partial normalization (15%): Weather underdelivers; van premiums compress slightly by late week.
- Move: Pivot to high-turn regionals; protect margin with commitments already locked.
📋 AM→PM Execution Checklist
- AM (Coverage)
- Lock PFF reefers for Midwest/NE with heater verification and temp-log agreement.
- Pre-book van sequences off ATL/DFW/CHI that avoid Rockies/NE risk.
- Flag West Coast pass-dependent loads; reroute or reschedule now.
- Midday (Margin)
- Re-quote cold-lane customers with itemized PFF and weather buffers.
- Flatbed: Confirm site readiness and crane windows; hold buys at/under posted.
- Heavy haul: Secure permits/pilots; confirm curfew timing before finalizing rate.
- PM (Risk/Continuity)
- Audit temp-control SOP files (photos/logs/fuel).
- Refresh weather/closure map; re-validate ETAs; send proactive updates.
- Line up southbound reloads for all northbound reefers/vans to cap buy-side exposure.
🧠 Sales Talk Tracks (Use as-is)
- Reefer PFF shipper:
- “Market is clearing above posted because real PFF requires continuous mode, additives, and weather buffers. We’ll itemize PFF and provide time-stamped temp logs so your product arrives uncompromised.”
- Van long-haul shipper (weather week):
- “Paid is running ahead of posted on lanes into cold markets. We’ll secure multi-day driver calendars and route around closures so you get reliability, not surprises.”
- Flatbed shipper (construction):
- “Open-deck rates are stable, so we’re prioritizing appointment control and site readiness to eliminate crane delays—your total cost drops even without a rate spike.”
- Heavy haul shipper:
- “Carriers are pricing a premium, so we pre-clear permits and escorts and pin down route surveys. You’re paying for a turnkey move with curfew compliance and fewer surprises.”
📈 Midday Metrics To Recheck
- PFF availability by market (CHI, CMH, PHL, BOS) and weather ETA windows.
- Carrier accept/decline ratios on northbound vs southbound offers (psychology: “escape-the-cold” still works).
- Detention/layover approvals on all storm-lane contracts—ensure pre-approval is documented.
🧩 Data Anchors (for your calls)
- Total loads: 130,875 | Market opportunity: $161.6M
- Reefer: Posted $2.64 | Paid $2.66 (tight; SOPs win)
- Van: Posted $2.21 | Paid $2.29 (tightening; sell calendars)
- Flatbed: Posted $2.40 | Paid $2.39 (buyer edge; sell service)
- Heavy haul: Posted $2.43 | Paid $2.50 (carrier edge; pre-clear)
- Diesel: $3.667/gal (align FSC; expect firmer carrier stances)
📅 This Day in History
55: The death under mysterious circumstances of Tiberius Claudius Caesar Britannicus, heir to the Roman Empire, on the eve of his coming of age clears the way for Nero to become Emperor.
1144: Robert of Chester completes his translation from Arabic to Latin of the Liber de compositione alchemiae, marking the birth of Western alchemy.
2024: 2024 Finnish presidential election: Alexander Stubb is elected as the 13th president of Finland.
💭 Quote of the Day
"The most creative act you will ever undertake is the act of creating yourself."
— Deepak Chopra