📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report

⛈️ Weather Impact Cascade

• Immediate Operational Impact: Wyoming: The most severe wind event (65 mph gusts) appears to be moderating. Forecast shows winds at 16-28 mph today (Saturday) and declining further to 8-16 mph Sunday, with continued improvement Monday through Tuesday. High-profile vehicles should be able to resume I-80/I-25 operations with appropriate caution by Sunday, though carriers may continue demanding wind-event premiums through the weekend. Georgia: The flooding alert (WX72048223) covering Newton, Rockdale, and Fulton counties is coinciding with rapidly improving weather — today's forecast shows sunny skies clearing to 66°F by afternoon. Ground saturation and warehouse access issues may persist into Saturday, but conditions should improve materially through the weekend. Great Lakes (Michigan/Wisconsin): Snow showers continue in Michigan (23°F Saturday, 19°F Sunday) and Wisconsin (snow Saturday with approximately 0.1 inch precipitation possible, 35% chance). Freezing spray conditions on Lake Superior and Lake Huron are likely to persist through at least Sunday given continued cold temperatures, maintaining PFF reefer demand and carrier avoidance of northern routes.
• Secondary Market Effects: Wyoming wind moderation should begin releasing parked transcontinental carriers back into the active market by Sunday afternoon. However, the freight that was delayed or rerouted during the wind event will create a backlog surge as shippers attempt to reschedule, potentially creating short-term appointment congestion at destination facilities in the Midwest and East. Atlanta metro flooding, as it clears, may release backed-up warehouse appointments, potentially creating a brief detention spike Monday as facilities process delayed freight from the weekend. Great Lakes reefer capacity that has been committed to PFF protection loads will remain constrained through early next week as temperatures stay below freezing in Michigan and Wisconsin.
• Regional Spillover Analysis: Wyoming capacity disruption has been redirecting flatbed carriers southward through Colorado and Utah — as Wyoming reopens, some of this diverted capacity may shift back northward, temporarily tightening capacity on southern transcontinental alternatives. The Great Lakes cold snap (Michigan forecast showing 19°F Sunday, Wisconsin 22°F Sunday) is pushing temperature-sensitive freight demand southward, adding incremental reefer demand pressure on Southeast corridors that are already tightening from produce season. Georgia flooding clearing will reduce friction on the Savannah-Atlanta corridor but will not reduce the underlying tariff-driven volume surge driving the lane.
• Recovery Timeline: Wyoming wind event: Meaningful operational recovery likely by Sunday based on forecast; full normalization with reduced carrier premiums possible by Monday-Tuesday. Georgia flooding: Surface conditions should improve through Saturday afternoon and Sunday based on the sunny forecast; warehouse backlog clearing may extend into Monday. Great Lakes freezing spray: Continued cold temperatures in Michigan (19°F Sunday) and Wisconsin (22°F Sunday) suggest PFF conditions persist through at least Monday, with modest improvement possible mid-week as temperatures begin to rise (Michigan forecast 33°F Monday, Wisconsin 38°F Monday).

News Impact Timeline

• Immediate Operational Reality: FMCSA CDL compliance enforcement is an active, ongoing disruption — not a future risk. Brokers should assume that any carrier sourced today through the spot market may face compliance scrutiny at Midwest weigh stations. The tariff front-loading surge is in full effect at Southeast ports today, with shippers actively competing for drayage and outbound van capacity. Flatbed tender rejections at 42.52% mean that routing guide failures are happening in real time across the country.
• 3-Day Market Implications: Within 72 hours (by Tuesday, March 3), the Wyoming wind situation should be substantially resolved, allowing transcontinental lane rates to begin moderating slightly for van freight. However, any freed transcontinental capacity is likely to be quickly absorbed by the backlog of delayed freight. The tariff front-loading urgency is unlikely to diminish within 72 hours — shippers will continue rushing imports through the weekend and into next week. Expect continued premium pricing on outbound port lanes. The FMCSA enforcement dynamic may intensify if federal authorities expand operations to additional states beyond the Midwest, though this cannot be confirmed from available data.
• Week-Ahead Positioning: By the end of the week of March 2, the market may begin to see early signs of flatbed rate stabilization if construction staging demand begins to be satisfied — though given the PMI and steel output signals, sustained demand is more likely. The Southeast reefer market is expected to tighten further as March produce season accelerates. Brokers should use the current week to lock in committed carrier capacity for key Southeast lanes before March produce season fully activates. Transcontinental lanes should see modest normalization by mid-week as Wyoming capacity re-enters the market.
• Regulatory Compliance Impacts: The FMCSA CDL crackdown represents a structural, not transient, compliance environment change. Brokers should immediately implement or reinforce carrier vetting protocols that verify CDL issuance state and domicile compliance. The competitive advantage of having a pre-vetted, compliant carrier network will compound over the coming weeks as enforcement continues. Brokers without robust compliance screening face escalating load abandonment risk.

Demand Shift Indicators

• Regional Demand Predictions: The Southeast is poised to see accelerating capacity tightening through the first week of March as two demand engines converge: the tariff front-loading surge at Savannah, Charleston, and Jacksonville ports, and the onset of the spring produce season pulling reefer equipment southward. The Midwest is likely to see modest van capacity recovery as FMCSA enforcement actions are absorbed by the carrier community and compliant drivers re-enter the active pool — though the timeline for this recovery remains uncertain. Flatbed demand nationally is unlikely to soften materially before mid-March given the construction staging and manufacturing expansion signals.
• Seasonal Transition Analysis: The current market is behaving anomalously for late February. Typically, flatbed demand builds gradually through March as construction season ramps. The current 42.52% tender rejection rate — driven by the intersection of manufacturing PMI expansion, data center builds, and early construction staging — suggests the seasonal surge has arrived 3-4 weeks ahead of its typical pace. This means brokers should not expect the usual early-March rate softening window that historically precedes the spring surge. The tariff-driven import front-loading is also compressing what would normally be a 6-8 week ramp into an intense multi-week burst.
• Economic Leading Indicators: Manufacturing PMI at 52.6 and raw steel output up 5% year-over-year are leading indicators of sustained flatbed demand through at least Q1 end. Continued global tariff policy uncertainty is likely to sustain elevated port freight volumes as shippers hedge their supply chains. These indicators collectively suggest the current tight capacity environment may persist longer than a typical weather-driven disruption cycle.
• Capacity Flow Predictions: As Wyoming wind conditions moderate (forecast shows winds declining to 8-16 mph by Sunday), transcontinental flatbed and van carriers who have been parked or holding in the region will likely begin repositioning eastward Sunday through Monday. This could create a brief window of slightly improved transcontinental capacity early next week before the broader structural demand absorbs any freed-up equipment. Reefer equipment is expected to continue migrating southward toward Florida produce origins through the first two weeks of March.

Rate Increase Justification For Flatbed Shippers

Opening Script: "Good morning — I want to give you a heads-up on what we're seeing in the open-deck market right now. Nationally, flatbed tender rejections have surged past 42%, which means nearly half of all contracted flatbed shipments are failing their routing guides today. With nearly 76,000 flatbed loads competing for an extremely limited carrier pool, the spot market is absorbing equipment faster than it's being replenished. Manufacturing PMI just hit 52.6 and raw steel output is up 5% year-over-year — your competitors are staging construction and industrial materials right now, and they're pulling the same carriers you rely on."

Value Proposition: We have established flatbed carrier relationships and real-time compliance vetting in place. In a market where unvetted carriers are being pulled off the road by FMCSA audits mid-transit, our network is pre-screened and ready to move your freight without abandonment risk.

Urgency Creator: Flatbed capacity is being absorbed at record rates this morning. The carriers available at 8am are not the same carriers available at noon. Every hour of delay increases your risk of paying a significant premium or not finding capacity at all today.

Objection Handler: If a customer says 'your flatbed rates are too high compared to last quarter' — respond: 'I understand the comparison, but the market has fundamentally shifted. With 42% tender rejections nationally, your contract carriers are statistically failing on nearly half their flatbed commitments. The rate you see today reflects real-time supply and demand, not last quarter's contracted environment. What I can offer you is confirmed, compliant capacity — and in this market, that certainty has real dollar value when you consider the cost of a missed delivery or a load abandoned mid-route.'

Capacity Shortage Communication For Van And Reefer Shippers

Opening Script: "I'm reaching out because the capacity environment changed significantly overnight, and it directly affects your freight. The FMCSA has intensified its crackdown on non-domiciled CDL holders following recent high-profile incidents, and carriers who rely on drivers with compliance gaps are getting hit with out-of-service orders at weigh stations — right now, today. This is creating artificial but very real capacity vacuums across Midwest and transcontinental van lanes. Simultaneously, reefer capacity nationally is down to roughly 8,000 available loads with paid rates averaging $2.43/mile, and that number is tightening as the Southeast produce season ramps up."

Value Proposition: ETA's carrier vetting process specifically screens for CDL compliance, licensing legitimacy, and safety scores. While other brokers are scrambling to replace carriers who just got pulled out of service mid-lane, your freight stays moving because our network has already been filtered for compliance.

Urgency Creator: The FMCSA enforcement actions are ongoing and unpredictable — the next wave of out-of-service orders could hit this weekend. Carriers who looked available yesterday may not be available tomorrow. Locking in your capacity now with a vetted provider is the only way to insulate your supply chain from this regulatory shock.

Objection Handler: If a customer pushes back with 'we'll just find someone cheaper on the load board' — respond: 'That's absolutely your call, and I respect it. But the load board right now is populated with carriers who are one weigh station check away from an out-of-service order. The $0.15/mile you save upfront could easily become a $2,000+ recovery cost if your load gets stranded in Missouri on a Saturday night. We've already done the vetting — that's what you're buying.'