📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report

🔑 Executive Signal Summary

• Reefer is today’s profit center; price above posted and lock PFF (Protect From Freeze) capacity before noon
  • Paid $2.80/mi vs posted $2.65/mi (+$0.15 spread). Small load pool (7,892) and freeze risk are giving carriers leverage.
• Vans are tightening; secure multi-day commitments on long-hauls and weather-safe corridors
  • Paid $2.31/mi vs posted $2.24/mi (+$0.07). Use consistency and reload calendars to defend buys.
• Flatbed arbitrage has vanished; run a predictability play, not rate games
  • Paid $2.37/mi vs posted $2.38/mi (near parity). Sell service and schedule control; expect fewer buy-side wins.
• Heavy haul near parity; specialized discount window is open
  • Heavy Haul paid $2.44/mi vs posted $2.43/mi (+$0.01); Specialized paid $2.21/mi vs posted $2.27/mi (−$0.06).
• Macro pulse: volume surge +16.5% DoD—move fast
  • Total loads 129,156; market opportunity $159.8M; national average $2.26/mi; diesel $3.659/gal.

📊 National Pulse (use these exact figures)

• Total loads: 129,156 (Yesterday 110,860; +16.5%)
• Market average rate: $2.26/mi (range $1.50–$2.80)

• Diesel (AAA): $3.659/gal

• Vans: 20,571 loads | Posted $2.24/mi | Paid $2.31/mi (+$0.07 carrier premium)

• Reefers: 7,892 loads | Posted $2.65/mi | Paid $2.80/mi (+$0.15 carrier premium)
• Flatbeds: 53,676 loads | Posted $2.38/mi | Paid $2.37/mi (parity)
• Heavy Haul: 26,836 loads | Posted $2.43/mi | Paid $2.44/mi (+$0.01 carrier premium)
• Specialized: 12,894 loads | Posted $2.27/mi | Paid $2.21/mi (−$0.06 buyer advantage)
• LTL/Partial: 7,287 loads | Posted $1.52/mi | Paid $1.50/mi (−$0.02 buyer advantage)

🌦 Weather-to-Freight Map (24–72 hours)

• Alaska: Blizzard + Hurricane-force marine winds
  • Impact: Barge/feeder and air-bridge disruptions; knock-on delays for AK-linked supply chains and coastal consolidations.
  • Actions: Buffer ETAs, flag intermodal handoffs, set expectations on West Coast-origin freight with AK legs.
• Northern Plains (ND/MN): Developing winter storm
  • Impact: Pre-storm carrier repositioning; reluctance to run into Midwest/Northern tier; reefer PFF premiums inbound.
  • Actions: Price PFF surcharges ($150–$300) into cold markets; pad ETAs and add “no punitive LDs during declared closures” to rate cons.

🎯 Do-This-Now Profit Plays

• Reefer PFF into Midwest/Northeast
  • Tactics: Quote at/above paid ($2.80/mi) when PFF applies; itemize PFF $150–$300, continuous mode, temp set-point on BOL, and photo/time-stamped temp logs.
  • Carrier Levers: Additive reimbursement, weather clause, and guaranteed southbound reload.
  • Target GM: 14–20% with zero temp claims.
• Van long-haul reliability bundles
  • Tactics: Sell 2–3 load calendars per driver at $2.24–$2.31 baseline; prioritize lanes avoiding the Northern Plains; reward carriers with consistent miles.
  • Target GM: 12–16% with ≤3% fall-offs.
• Flatbed service premium (no arbitrage)
  • Tactics: Lead with schedule control, multi-stop orchestration, and site-readiness; hold buys near $2.37 while selling certainty and compliance.
  • Target GM: 9–12% with firm appointment management.
• Specialized discount capture
  • Tactics: Paid $2.21 vs posted $2.27—negotiate buys toward paid, sell equipment expertise, and document securement plans to justify rate-to-shipper.
  • Target GM: 12–15% on niche moves (RGN/step with light-special requirements).

🗺️ Regional Focus and Lanes

• Primary region: Southeast (GA, FL, AL)

  • Why: Early produce prep + high outbound demand; reefer premiums stick and capacity is tighter vs West.
  • Playbook:
  • Atlanta, GA → Chicago, IL (Reefer/Van PFF): Freeze protection into a colder market; pre-book Chicago reloads to lower headhaul buy.
  • Jacksonville, FL → Nashville, TN (Van/Reefer): Port-fed inbound + quick-turn regional; sell speed and consistent round-trips.

• Supplemental lanes to watch

  • Lakeland, FL → Midwest (Reefer): Headhaul with strong reload density; lock return south to hold carrier rate.
  • Dallas, TX → Southeast (Van): High-load metros tightening; multi-load commitments win coverage at fair buys.

💵 Pricing and Margin Control

• Anchor shipper framing to $2.26/mi national average; expand premiums for PFF and long-haul risk into cold regions.
• Keep FSC (Fuel Surcharge) aligned with $3.659/gal diesel; do not bury winterization—itemize PFF/additive to defend linehaul.
• Use spreads precisely:
  • Reefer +$0.15: Carriers hold leverage—win with SOPs (continuous mode, logs, return reloads).
  • Van +$0.07: Tightening—trade reliability for cents, not nickels on a single load.
  • Flatbed ≈ parity: Sell predictability, not price.
  • Specialized −$0.06: Buyer’s window—tight vetting and expertise to avoid back-end costs.

🤝 Carrier Ops: Sourcing and Negotiation

• Reefer-first sourcing
  • Actions: Prioritize heater-capable reefers, verify continuous mode and calibrated units; collect photo proof pre-pickup.
  • Talk track: “We cover additive and temp logs and have a confirmed southbound reload; weather clause removes LD risk.”
• Van density + miles
  • Actions: Offer calendar commitments and reload certainty; avoid weather corridors to keep clocks clean.
  • Talk track: “Three-load sequence, same consignee cluster, no Northern Plains exposure—keep your week tight.”
• Flatbed compliance edge
  • Actions: Lead with securement plans, tarping SOPs, and appointment control; negotiate around service, not nickels.

🧠 Sales Talk Tracks (ready-to-use)

• PFF shipper (Reefer):
  • “Paid is clearing at $2.80 vs $2.65 posted because true PFF requires continuous mode, logs, and weather buffers. We’ll itemize PFF, provide temp proof, and protect your OTIF.”
• Van shipper (long-haul):
  • “Capacity’s tightening—paid $2.31 vs posted $2.24. We’ll hold buys by giving carriers a multi-day sequence and safer routing; you get reliability through the storm window.”
• Flatbed shipper:
  • “Open-deck is at parity. We’ll secure on-time trucks by locking schedule control and site-readiness—your risk drops without rate spikes.”

🛡 Risk, Compliance, and SOPs

• Carrier vetting (non-negotiable)
  • Actions: Verify active insurance, safety scores, recent clean inspections, ELD compliance; callback verification on any banking/dispatch changes; screen for chameleon patterns.
• Weather clauses + accessorials
  • Actions: Add “no punitive LDs during declared closures,” pre-approved detention/layover, and documented PFF requirements on rate cons.
• Temp-control audit
  • Actions: Require continuous mode noted on BOL, temp set-point, photo/time-stamped reefer display at shipper and receiver; fuel levels verified.

🔭 24–72 Hour Scenarios (probability-weighted)

• Base case (60%): Reefer premiums persist; van tightness broadens into mid-hauls; flatbed stays balanced.
  • Response: Front-load PFF coverage by midday daily; expand van calendars; hold flatbed buys steady.
• Cold escalation (25%): Northern Plains storm expands; NE gets colder; reefer PFF premiums widen.
  • Response: Raise PFF surcharge bands; throttle NE-bound tenders to documented SOP carriers only; push returns south.
• Normalization (15%): Weather underperforms; van premiums compress slightly by late week.
  • Response: Shift van focus to high-turn regionals; protect margins by keeping multi-load commitments intact.

✅ Execution Checklist (AM → PM)

• AM (Coverage):
  • Lock NE/Midwest-bound reefers with PFF; collect heater verification and temp-log commitment before tender.
  • Pre-book van long-hauls off major hubs (ATL/DFW/CHI) avoiding Northern Plains risk.
• Midday (Margin):
  • Re-quote PFF customers to align with paid $2.80; itemize PFF and weather buffers.
  • Specialized opportunities: Push buys toward $2.21 and sell expertise; confirm route surveys and permits.
• PM (Risk/Continuity):
  • Audit all PFF loads for SOP compliance (logs/photos on file).
  • Confirm weather clauses for any cold-lane moves; re-validate ETAs against updated forecasts.

📚 Quick Glossary

• PFF (Protect From Freeze): Reefer procedures to prevent freezing (continuous mode, temp logs, additives).
• FSC (Fuel Surcharge): Line item pegged to diesel averages to offset carrier fuel costs.
• OTRI (Outbound Tender Rejection Index): Gauge of contract rejections—higher implies tighter capacity and spot premiums.
• LTL (Less Than Truckload): Shipments that do not require a full trailer; consolidated moves.

📎 Data Anchors (for your calls)

• Total loads: 129,156 | Market opportunity: $159.8M
• Reefer: Posted $2.65 | Paid $2.80 (tight; premiums real)
• Van: Posted $2.24 | Paid $2.31 (tightening; sell calendars)
• Flatbed: Posted $2.38 | Paid $2.37 (parity; sell service)
• Diesel: $3.659/gal (slight upward pressure on FSC)