📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report

🔑 Executive Signal Summary

• Reefer is today’s profit center; lock Protect From Freeze (PFF) capacity early and itemize cold-weather costs
  • Paid $2.66/mi vs posted $2.64/mi (+$0.02). Small pool (7,744 loads) and storms in Rockies/Sierras are delaying equipment and boosting premiums.
• Vans are tighter than they look; sell reliability bundles and weather-safe routing
  • Paid $2.29/mi vs posted $2.21/mi (+$0.08). Avoid storm corridors and quote conservatively on long-hauls crossing the Rockies or heading into the Northeast.
• Flatbed is a broker’s market by a hair; win on service, not rate games
  • Paid $2.39/mi vs posted $2.40/mi (−$0.01). Focus on schedule control and site readiness in high-volume Southeast lanes.
• Heavy haul carriers hold leverage; pre-clear everything and book early
  • Paid $2.50/mi vs posted $2.43/mi (+$0.07). Sell permits/escort readiness and route surveys to defend shipper rate.
• Diesel is rising; align FSC (Fuel Surcharge) and expect firmer carrier stances
  • AAA national diesel: $3.667/gal. Itemize winterization and fuel impacts to protect margin.
• Weather risk is real in CA Sierras and the Rockies; add clauses, pad ETAs, and reroute
  • Expect 24–48 hour disruption on I-80/I-70 mountain passes; carriers will demand premiums or refuse.

📊 National Pulse (Exact Figures)

• Total loads: 130,875 (Yesterday 129,156; +1.3%)
• Market opportunity: $161.6M
• Market average rate: $2.27/mi (range $1.49–$2.66)
• Diesel (AAA): $3.667/gal
• Van: 20,694 loads | Posted $2.21/mi | Paid $2.29/mi
• Reefer: 7,744 loads | Posted $2.64/mi | Paid $2.66/mi
• Flatbed: 53,400 loads | Posted $2.40/mi | Paid $2.39/mi
• Heavy Haul: 27,256 loads | Posted $2.43/mi | Paid $2.50/mi
• Specialized: 14,188 loads | Posted $2.32/mi | Paid $2.31/mi
• LTL/Partial: 7,593 loads | Posted $1.49/mi | Paid $1.56/mi
• Note: OTRI (Outbound Tender Rejection Index) remains elevated in temp-control; expect spillover tightness in spot.

🌦 Weather-to-Freight Playbook (24–72 Hours)

• Sierra Nevada & Yosemite winter storm (CA):
  • Impact: Chain controls, 12–24” snow, 50 mph gusts; delays for Central CA flows crossing passes.
  • Actions:
  • Reroute cross-state moves via I-5 where feasible; split tenders to avoid pass dependency.
  • Add weather clauses: “No punitive LDs during declared closures”; pre-approve layover/detention.
• Rockies (CO/WY) winter storm:
  • Impact: Up to 20” at elevation; I-70/I-80 disruptions; carriers avoid exposure.
  • Actions:
  • Price risk into NE/Midwest runs, especially PFF; pad ETAs 6–18 hours.
  • Pre-sell southbound reloads to attract carriers into cold geographies.
• Arctic blizzard (AK coast):
  • Impact: Operational halts; trickle-down delays to West Coast consolidations.
  • Actions: Buffer intermodal handoffs; manage expectations for AK-linked legs.
• Southeast (milder):
  • Impact: Stable operations; inbound demand from retail/construction.
  • Actions: Lean into SE outbound for margin predictability and faster turns.

🚀 Do-This-Now Profit Plays

• Reefer PFF into Midwest/Northeast
  • Tactics:
  • Itemize PFF (heater use, additives, continuous mode) and show value with photo/time-stamped temp logs on BOL.
  • Anchor buys near paid levels where weather risk applies; sell at a visible premium over posted when SOPs and risk apply.
  • Bundle a return (south/east) to reduce carrier fear premium and hold buy-side cost.
  • Target GM: 14–20% with zero temp claims and documented SOPs.
• Van reliability bundles (avoid storm corridors)
  • Tactics:
  • Offer 2–3 load calendars per driver in safer corridors; pay slightly above posted to secure consistency.
  • Price conservatively on CA↔Mountain West and NE lanes; pad transit vs. promising OTIF on thin ice.
  • Target GM: 12–16% with ≤3% fall-offs.
• Flatbed schedule control over nickels
  • Tactics:
  • Pre-qualify sites (crane windows, tarping zones, staging) and market appointment certainty.
  • Negotiate buys at/just under posted; sell risk reduction (no missed cranes) to justify shipper linehaul.
  • Target GM: 9–12% with documented site-readiness wins.
• Heavy haul discipline
  • Tactics:
  • Pre-clear permits/escorts/route surveys before quoting; book early—carriers have a +$0.07 advantage today.
  • Sell expertise (pilot car coordination, curfews, bridge clearances) to protect rate and margin.
  • Target GM: 12–15% with zero compliance misses.
• LTL/Partial arbitrage pockets
  • Signal: Paid $1.56/mi vs posted $1.49/mi (+$0.07).
  • Tactics: Curate multi-stop partials on flatbeds/dry vans to beat LTL transit in SE/Mid-South; charge premium for speed.

🗺 Regional & Lane Plays

• Primary Focus: Southeast (broker-favorable)
  • Atlanta, GA → Columbus, OH (Van):
  • Upward pressure northbound; sell winter-safe routing and book CMH→ATL reloads to tame buy-side cost.
  • Jacksonville, FL → Charlotte, NC (Flatbed):
  • Construction-fed demand; win on appointment control and tarp compliance; hold buys near posted.
  • Lakeland, FL → Midwest (Reefer, PFF as needed):
  • Position heater-capable units; guarantee return southbound to reduce premium.
• West Coast caution lanes
  • Central CA → NV/UT/CO (All modes):
  • Avoid Sierra crossings; route via I-5 or hold until storm passes; insert weather clauses.
• Cold-to-warm “escape” plays
  • Chicago/Columbus → Southeast (Van/Reefer):
  • Carriers eager to exit cold; negotiate buys near posted with guaranteed reloads in GA/TN/AL.

💵 Pricing and Margin Control

• Anchor to the national average $2.27/mi, then add/subtract for mode, weather, and corridor risk.
• Align FSC to $3.667/gal diesel; itemize winterization (PFF, additives) rather than burying in linehaul.
• Use spreads with intent:
  • Reefer +$0.02 (paid>posted): Pay for SOP-compliant carriers; sell premium on risk and documentation.
  • Van +$0.08: Buy consistency with calendars; sell OTIF (On-Time In-Full) in storm week.
  • Flatbed −$0.01 (buyer edge): Keep buys disciplined; monetize schedule certainty to shippers.
  • Heavy haul +$0.07 (carrier edge): Quote only after feasibility checks; defend rate with compliance scope.
  • LTL/Partial +$0.07: Capture expedited partials for time-sensitive shippers.

🤝 Carrier Ops & Negotiation Talk Tracks

• Reefer (PFF)
  • Ask: “Can you run continuous mode with calibrated unit and provide photo-stamped temp logs at PU/DEL?”
  • Offer: “We’ll cover additive and layover if closures hit; return southbound reload pre-booked.”
• Van (reliability)
  • Ask: “Open to a 3-load sequence avoiding Rockies/NE weather?”
  • Offer: “Tight appointment plan, clustered consignees, minimum deadhead—keep your clock clean.”
• Flatbed (service)
  • Ask: “Confirm tarp size, edge protection, and crane window flexibility?”
  • Offer: “We control site readiness and loader window—no wasted time or re-tarps.”
• Heavy haul (compliance)
  • Ask: “Equipment photos, axle spacings, pilot car availability, and curfew experience for target states?”
  • Offer: “Permits and escorts are queued; we’ll stage overnight parking and fuel stops within curfews.”

🛡 Risk, Compliance, and SOPs

• Carrier vetting (non-negotiable): Active insurance, authority, BASICs (FMCSA safety), recent clean inspections, ELD (Electronic Logging Device) compliance; callback verification on banking/dispatch changes; screen for chameleon carriers.
• Contract armor: Add “no punitive LDs during declared closures,” pre-approved detention/layover, and explicit PFF requirements on rate cons.
• Temp-control audit: Note continuous mode and set-point on BOL; require photo/time-stamped reefer display at PU/DEL; verify fuel.
• Border/compliance pockets: Recent enforcement sweeps tightened capacity—expect firmer pricing near border states; double-check CDL and equipment docs.

🔭 24–72 Hour Scenarios (Probability-Weighted)

• Base case (60%): Reefer premiums persist; van tightness centered on cold corridors; flatbed stays balanced.
  • Move: Front-load PFF bookings by late morning; expand van calendars; hold flatbed buys near posted and sell service.
• Storm escalation (25%): Sierra/Rockies closures extend; PNW tightens; inbound NE gets colder.
  • Move: Lift PFF surcharges; restrict NE-bound tenders to SOP-proven carriers; increase ETA buffers; throttle cross-mountain tenders.
• Partial normalization (15%): Weather underdelivers; van premiums compress slightly by late week.
  • Move: Pivot to high-turn regionals; protect margin with commitments already locked.

📋 AM→PM Execution Checklist

• AM (Coverage)
  • Lock PFF reefers for Midwest/NE with heater verification and temp-log agreement.
  • Pre-book van sequences off ATL/DFW/CHI that avoid Rockies/NE risk.
  • Flag West Coast pass-dependent loads; reroute or reschedule now.
• Midday (Margin)
  • Re-quote cold-lane customers with itemized PFF and weather buffers.
  • Flatbed: Confirm site readiness and crane windows; hold buys at/under posted.
  • Heavy haul: Secure permits/pilots; confirm curfew timing before finalizing rate.
• PM (Risk/Continuity)
  • Audit temp-control SOP files (photos/logs/fuel).
  • Refresh weather/closure map; re-validate ETAs; send proactive updates.
  • Line up southbound reloads for all northbound reefers/vans to cap buy-side exposure.

🧠 Sales Talk Tracks (Use as-is)

• Reefer PFF shipper:
  • “Market is clearing above posted because real PFF requires continuous mode, additives, and weather buffers. We’ll itemize PFF and provide time-stamped temp logs so your product arrives uncompromised.”
• Van long-haul shipper (weather week):
  • “Paid is running ahead of posted on lanes into cold markets. We’ll secure multi-day driver calendars and route around closures so you get reliability, not surprises.”
• Flatbed shipper (construction):
  • “Open-deck rates are stable, so we’re prioritizing appointment control and site readiness to eliminate crane delays—your total cost drops even without a rate spike.”
• Heavy haul shipper:
  • “Carriers are pricing a premium, so we pre-clear permits and escorts and pin down route surveys. You’re paying for a turnkey move with curfew compliance and fewer surprises.”

📈 Midday Metrics To Recheck

• PFF availability by market (CHI, CMH, PHL, BOS) and weather ETA windows.
• Carrier accept/decline ratios on northbound vs southbound offers (psychology: “escape-the-cold” still works).
• Detention/layover approvals on all storm-lane contracts—ensure pre-approval is documented.

🧩 Data Anchors (for your calls)

• Total loads: 130,875 | Market opportunity: $161.6M
• Reefer: Posted $2.64 | Paid $2.66 (tight; SOPs win)
• Van: Posted $2.21 | Paid $2.29 (tightening; sell calendars)
• Flatbed: Posted $2.40 | Paid $2.39 (buyer edge; sell service)
• Heavy haul: Posted $2.43 | Paid $2.50 (carrier edge; pre-clear)
• Diesel: $3.667/gal (align FSC; expect firmer carrier stances)