📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report

🔑 Executive Signal Summary

• Reefer is the day’s profit engine; seize Protect From Freeze (PFF) freight early and price above posted
  • Paid $2.70/mi vs posted $2.53/mi (+$0.17). The spread screams hidden premiums driven by freeze protection and weather avoidance. Itemize cold-chain SOPs and lock proven carriers before midday.
• Van tightness is real; buy calendars and sell reliability
  • Paid $2.25/mi vs posted $2.18/mi (+$0.07). Weekend leverage will favor carriers on headhaul lanes; secure capacity early on lanes northbound out of the Southeast.
• Flatbed is volume-rich but price-disciplined; win on schedule control
  • Paid $2.35/mi vs posted $2.39/mi (−$0.04). Keep buys near/below posted and monetize crane/appointment certainty.
• Southeast is today’s safest margin pocket
  • Stable capacity with rising demand; build round-trips around Atlanta/Charlotte hubs and avoid weather-challenged Mountain West flows.
• Weather risk is tightening the national reefer pool; embed clauses and pad ETAs
  • Storm-driven avoidance in Rockies/PNW increases premiums and delays. Use route alternatives and set customer expectations now.
• Diesel steady at $3.667/gal; protect margin via aligned FSC (Fuel Surcharge) and explicit winterization costs
  • Keep surcharge line-items transparent; carriers will push for recognition of fuel and idle time in cold.

📊 National Spot Snapshot (use exact figures)

• Total loads: 133,471
• Market opportunity: $168.0M
• Market average rate: $2.23/mi (range $1.48–$2.70)
• Diesel (AAA): $3.667/gal
• By equipment (Posted | Paid):
  • Van: 21,525 loads | $2.18 | $2.25 (+$0.07)
  • Reefer: 8,051 loads | $2.53 | $2.70 (+$0.17)
  • Flatbed: 54,336 loads | $2.39 | $2.35 (−$0.04)
  • Heavy Haul: 27,338 loads | $2.44 | $2.43 (−$0.01)
  • Specialized: 14,663 loads | $2.30 | $2.25 (−$0.05)
  • LTL/Partial: 7,558 loads | $1.48 | $1.51 (+$0.03)

⚙️ Market Context: What’s Driving Today

• Weather-induced dislocation tightens effective capacity
  • Carriers are avoiding blizzard/ice corridors in the West; reroutes extend transit and consume hours, pushing paid above posted in Van/Reefer.
• Behavioral dynamic: carriers hold out for weekend premiums
  • As loads accelerate into Friday, carriers price the “pain” of cold lanes and uncertain reloads, especially into OH/MI/PA and across I-70/I-80.
• Industrial demand steady; construction pauses temper flatbed rate pressure
  • High flatbed volume with sufficient capacity yields a buyer’s edge by a few cents; service quality is the differentiator, not pennies.

🚀 Immediate Money Plays (next 24–48 hours)

• Reefer PFF arbitrage (national, emphasis on Mountain West crossers)
  • Actions:
  • Pre-verify heater capability, continuous mode, fuel level, and temp-log photos at PU/DEL.
  • Itemize winterization (additives, continuous mode, extra fuel burn) on quotes; don’t bury in linehaul.
  • Bundle a warm-region return (e.g., FL/GA/TX) to reduce the carrier fear premium on cold northbound moves.
  • Targets: 14–22% GM, zero temp claims, SOPs documented on every stop.
• Van reliability bundles from Southeast hubs
  • Actions:
  • Buy 2–3 load calendars per driver ex-ATL/CLT into OH/KY/TN; reserve safer corridors away from Rockies/NE storms.
  • Anchor buys near paid average where headhaul tightens; sell shippers on OTIF (On-Time, In-Full) with padded ETAs.
  • Targets: 12–16% GM, ≤3% fall-offs.
• Flatbed schedule control > rate games
  • Actions:
  • Pre-clear crane windows, tarping, site readiness, and staging; lock buys at or below posted.
  • Offer guaranteed show-times to justify holding shipper rate while buys stay disciplined.
  • Targets: 9–12% GM, zero crane misses.
• LTL/Partial consolidation sprints (SE/Mid-South)
  • Actions:
  • Curate multi-stop partials on open-deck/dry vans to beat LTL time-in-transit; charge premium for speed and single-handling.
  • Targets: 12–18% GM, damage-free delivery.

🗺️ Regional Tactics

• Primary focus: Southeast (ATL/CLT hubs)
  • Why: Capacity stable, weather-lighter, dependable reloads.
  • Plays:
  • ATL, GA → CMH, OH (Van): Price modestly above posted; pre-book CMH→ATL reloads to keep buy cost contained.
  • CLT, NC → ORL, FL (Van): Florida inbound firm; pre-sell backhauls (JAX/TLH/TPA to GA/NC) before committing to reduce deep-Florida risk.
  • SE Flatbed regionals: Lock site-ready shippers; use schedule control to sustain margin.
• Caution zones: Mountain West and PNW (all modes; highest in Reefer)
  • Moves:
  • Avoid pass-dependent routings on I-70/I-80 when closures loom; reroute via lower-elevation corridors or stagger departures.
  • Insert “no punitive LDs (Liquidated Damages) during declared closures” clauses and pre-approve layover/detention.
• Cross-border awareness (Automotive/Manufacturing)
  • FMCSA non-domiciled CDL rule tightening over time; quote with contingency for capacity creep on MX–US lanes and prioritize vetted partners with stable visa status.

💵 Pricing Guardrails (protect margin with transparency)

• Anchor linehaul to the national average $2.23/mi, then adjust
  • Reefer: Add premium for PFF and weather-exposed lanes; back it with SOP documentation.
  • Van: Add modest premium on headhaul lanes and weekend picks/deliveries.
  • Flatbed: Hold buys ≤ posted; monetize crane certainty.
  • Heavy Haul: Market slightly favors brokers (−$0.01 vs posted); still pre-clear permits/pilots before final quote.
• Fuel & winterization
  • Align FSC to $3.667/gal and separate winterization line-items to avoid margin erosion in negotiations.

🤝 Carrier Ops & Negotiation Talk Tracks

• Reefer (PFF)
  • Ask: “Can you run continuous mode and share time-stamped reefer display photos at PU/DEL?”
  • Offer: “We cover additives and documented weather delays; your southbound reload is pre-booked.”
• Van (reliability over roulette)
  • Ask: “Open to a 2–3 load sequence ATL→OH/KY with returns to GA/NC?”
  • Offer: “Tight appointments, low deadhead, no storm corridors, and fast paperwork.”
• Flatbed (service premium)
  • Ask: “Confirm tarp spec, edge protection, and crane window?”
  • Offer: “Site readiness verified—no lost crane time; we hold detention at posted-level buys.”
• Heavy Haul (discipline first)
  • Ask: “Axle spacings, pilot availability, and curfew experience for target states?”
  • Offer: “Permits and escorts queued before tender; route survey included.”

🌦 Weather-to-Freight Playbook (72 hours)

• Colorado high mountain passes (I-70 corridor):
  • Impact: Accumulating snow above 9,000 ft; traction/closure risk.
  • Actions: Reroute via lower elevations; stagger pickup times; add layover buffers.
• Alaska coastal blizzards / Gulf of Alaska storms:
  • Impact: Port/maritime and feeder air disruption; possible ripple to West Coast consolidations.
  • Actions: Build buffers for AK-linked moves; sequence dray/intermodal handoffs conservatively.
• Southeast clear window:
  • Impact: High on-time probability; best region for round-trip calendars.
  • Actions: Consolidate volumes here for predictable turns and margin.

📰 What This News Means for Today

• FMCSA non-domiciled CDL final rule:
  • Today: Minimal immediate effect;
  • Action: Start tagging cross-border carriers with verified eligibility; prepare to justify slightly higher cross-border quotes.
• Carrier bankruptcy (mid-sized regional):
  • Today: Heightened service-risk sensitivity;
  • Action: Tighten vetting (insurance, BASICs, recent inspections) and use the narrative to defend shipper rate realism amid paid>posted spreads.
• EPA GHG roll-back signals:
  • Today: No pricing change;
  • Action: None short-term; track equipment refresh cycles for 2H–next year planning.

🛡 Risk Controls and SOPs (non-negotiable)

• Contract armor
  • Insert weather/closure clauses, pre-approved detention/layover, explicit PFF verbiage (continuous mode, temp range, documentation).
• Carrier vetting
  • Active authority, insurance match, BASICs review, recent clean inspections, ELD compliance; callback verification on banking/dispatch changes.
• Temperature control audit
  • BOL notes with set-point and mode; photo/time-stamped logs at PU/DEL; verify fuel and door seal numbers.

🔭 24–72 Hour Scenario Map

• Base (60%)—Persistent tightness in Reefer/Van; Flatbed balanced
  • Move: Front-load PFF and headhaul vans by late morning; hold flatbed buys ≤ posted; sell reliability bundles.
• Escalation (25%)—Storm closures extend; PNW tightens
  • Move: Lift PFF surcharges; restrict risky lanes to SOP-proven carriers; increase ETA buffers; throttle cross-mountain tenders.
• Easing (15%)—Weather underperforms; weekend premiums compress
  • Move: Pivot to SE regionals and partials; protect booked margins and avoid re-pricing downward.

📋 AM → PM Execution Checklist

• AM (Coverage first)
  • Lock PFF reefers on any cold-lane tenders; confirm SOP and temp logs in writing.
  • Buy van calendars ex-ATL/CLT for Fri–Mon turns; avoid storm corridors.
  • Flag pass-dependent West moves; reroute or reschedule now.
• Midday (Margin and risk)
  • Re-quote cold-lane customers with explicit PFF/winterization and padded ETAs.
  • Flatbed: Verify crane windows and staging; keep buys at/under posted.
  • Heavy haul: Confirm permits/pilot lines before rate commits.
• PM (Continuity)
  • Audit temp-control files (photos/logs/seals).
  • Refresh weather/closure map and re-validate ETAs; push proactive updates.
  • Stage southbound reloads for all northbound vans/reefers.

📈 Midday Metrics To Recheck

• Reefer paid vs posted spread by market (CHI/CMH/PHL/BOS); aim to keep buy ≤ paid and sell at premium with SOP value.
• Carrier accept/decline on northbound vs southbound offers ex-SE (leverage “escape-the-cold” psychology).
• Detention/layover pre-approvals across storm lanes; confirm shippers signed updated terms.

🧠 Sales Talk Tracks (use as-is)

• Reefer PFF shipper
  • “Paid is clearing well above posted because real freeze protection requires continuous mode, additives, and weather buffers. We’ll itemize those and provide time-stamped temp logs so your product arrives uncompromised.”
• Van headhaul shipper (SE → Midwest)
  • “Capacity is tightening into the weekend. We’re buying multi-day driver calendars and routing around weather, so you get reliability—not surprises—on critical replenishments.”
• Flatbed shipper (construction/industrial)
  • “Rates are stable; our edge is appointment control and site readiness, which eliminates crane downtime and protects your total landed cost.”

🧮 Quick Reference Spreads (today)

• Reefer +$0.17, Van +$0.07, LTL/Partial +$0.03 (paid > posted; premium environment)
• Flatbed −$0.04, Heavy Haul −$0.01, Specialized −$0.05 (broker-favorable buys; sell service)