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šŸ“Š Daily Market Intelligence Report

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

7:00 AM CST


šŸ“Š Top-Line Summary

The spot market is currently navigating a highly complex environment characterized by a massive volume floor of 155,903 available loads and a $191.0M market opportunity, even as the national average rate cools slightly to $2.25/mile. Flatbed freight is completely dominating the board with over 70,800 available loads, driven by an early surge in construction and energy sector staging. However, the most critical development for brokers today is the combination of severe carrier attrition and regulatory crackdowns. Industry forecasts now project spot rates to surpass contract rates in the near future as the FMCSA aggressively targets non-domiciled CDLs and training mills, structurally shrinking the active driver pool. Compounding these capacity constraints are severe 75-80 mph crosswinds paralyzing transcontinental routes along the I-80 and I-90 corridors. With tender rejections holding at an elevated 13.49%, routing guides are fracturing, creating massive arbitrage opportunities for brokers who can secure reliable capacity in a tightening market.

Daily market overview

⛽ Diesel Price Analysis

Price Trend Over Time

Diesel Price Trend Chart

AAA Historical Price Comparison

AAA Historical Price Comparison Chart

šŸŒ¦ļø Weather & Seasonal Intelligence

Current Major Weather Events:

ā›ˆļø Weather Impact Cascade

šŸ’° Financial Market Indicators

šŸ“° Impactful News Analysis

  1. Spot Rates Forecasted to Surpass Contract Rates Amid Capacity Squeeze šŸ”—:
    Industry analysts project that truckload spot rates will soon exceed contract rates due to a vulnerable carrier capacity environment. For brokers, this is a critical pivot point: shippers will increasingly experience routing guide failures, pushing lucrative freight to the spot market. Brokers must shift from a volume-chasing strategy to a margin-protection strategy, as securing reliable capacity will become more difficult and expensive.
  2. FMCSA Crackdown on CDL Mills Threatens to Shrink Driver Pool šŸ”—:
    The FMCSA is moving to end the self-certification process for driver training schools after finding massive non-compliance. This regulatory overhaul will structurally shrink the entry-level driver pipeline and force bad actors out of the market. Brokers must implement stricter carrier vetting processes immediately, as capacity will tighten further and the liability risks of utilizing unverified carriers will skyrocket.
  3. Tender Rejections Hold Near 13.5% as Contract Carriers Pivot to Dedicated šŸ”—:
    With tender rejections sitting at 13.49% (up over 800 basis points year-over-year), large carriers are abandoning one-way over-the-road freight in favor of multiyear dedicated contracts. This structural shift leaves shippers highly exposed. Brokers should aggressively target enterprise shippers right now, offering guaranteed spot capacity as a relief valve for their failing routing guides.
  4. Truck Tonnage Shows Modest Growth, Signaling Demand Floor šŸ”—:
    The ATA's Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.4% recently, confirming that freight volumes are stabilizing. Because this recovery is colliding with reduced overall truck capacity, brokers should anticipate increased rate volatility. Sales teams should use this data to warn customers that the era of cheap, abundant capacity is ending, justifying higher contracted rates for the upcoming bid season.

News Impact Timeline

šŸ” Competitive Intelligence

Demand Shift Indicators

šŸ‘„ Customer Sector Analysis

šŸ—ŗļø Regional & Lane Analysis

šŸ“ Primary Region Focus: Midwest

The Midwest is currently the epicenter of the freight market's structural shifts. The region is experiencing a massive influx of flatbed demand driven by early construction and energy projects, while simultaneously facing a severe capacity shock due to the FMCSA's aggressive audits of CDL training mills (particularly in Illinois). Furthermore, the region serves as the gateway to the wind-battered transcontinental routes of the Mountain West. Carriers are highly reluctant to take westbound freight into the 75-80 mph crosswinds of I-80, forcing brokers to pay massive premiums to move loads out of the Midwest toward the West Coast. This combination of regulatory driver attrition, weather-driven routing shifts, and surging industrial demand is creating extreme rate volatility and highly profitable arbitrage opportunities for well-connected brokers.

šŸ›£ļø Key Lane Watch

Chicago, IL → Denver, CO:

This lane is currently experiencing extreme upward rate pressure. Carriers are actively avoiding dispatch into the Mountain West due to the 75-80 mph crosswinds and heavy mountain snow affecting I-80 and I-76. Combined with the shrinking driver pool in Illinois due to CDL audits, capacity is exceptionally scarce.

Columbus, OH → Dallas, TX:

This lane is seeing a massive surge in flatbed and specialized freight volume as manufacturing and construction materials move from the Rust Belt to the booming Sunbelt. Capacity is tightening as the national flatbed load count surpasses 70,000.

🚨 Actionable Alerts

Rate Spike Warnings:

Capacity Shortage Alerts:

Opportunity Zones:

šŸŽÆ Strategic Recommendations for Today

šŸ’¼ For Customer Sales:

Narrative: Inform customers that the freight market is experiencing a structural shift. With tender rejections hitting 13.5%, spot rates projected to surpass contract rates, and the FMCSA actively shrinking the driver pool, the era of cheap capacity is over. Position ETA as their reliable safety net.

Action: Proactively reach out to enterprise accounts today to ask about their routing guide compliance. Offer to take on their 'problem lanes' immediately, particularly anything heading into the Mountain West or requiring flatbed equipment.

šŸš› For Carrier Reps:

Sourcing Focus: Prioritize securing flatbed capacity in the Midwest and South. For van/reefer, focus on building relationships with carriers willing to run alternative transcontinental routes (I-40 or I-10) to avoid the severe winds on I-80.

Negotiation Leverage: Use the promise of consistent, high-quality freight to negotiate with carriers. In a market where the FMCSA is cracking down on bad actors, emphasize that ETA only works with compliant, top-tier carriers, offering them priority access to our best loads.

šŸ“ž Customer Communication Scripts

Rate Increase Justification

Opening Script: "Good morning, this is [Name] from ETA. I wanted to reach out personally because the market shifted significantly overnight and it directly impacts your freight. Nationally, tender rejections are sitting at 13.49% — that's up more than 800 basis points from this time last year — which means contract carriers are rejecting loads at a historically elevated rate. On top of that, severe high winds across the Wyoming and Montana corridors are forcing carriers to park or reroute entirely, pulling active capacity off the board right now. I want to make sure your freight doesn't get caught in a last-minute capacity crunch."

Value Proposition: By locking in capacity with ETA today, you're insulating your supply chain from routing guide failures that are already impacting enterprise shippers across the Midwest and Mountain West. Our pre-vetted carrier network is already positioned to move your freight on alternative corridors.

Urgency Creator: The wind event affecting I-80 and I-90 through Wyoming and Montana is ongoing today and Montana forecast shows elevated westerly winds of 30-59 mph persisting through Thursday. Every hour that passes, more carriers are parking or repositioning away from westbound dispatch, shrinking the available pool further.

Objection Handler: If your customer says 'your rates are too high': 'I completely understand the sticker shock — rates have moved significantly. Here is the context: the national flatbed market currently has over 70,800 available loads competing for a shrinking pool of drivers. The FMCSA is actively auditing and shutting down CDL training mills, which is structurally removing drivers from the market — not temporarily. The carriers who remain are in a position of leverage, and the data confirms it: paid rates are already exceeding posted rates on reefer freight. What I'm quoting you today reflects the real cost of securing a truck that will actually show up.'

Capacity Shortage Communication For Westbound Flatbed Freight

Opening Script: "I'm calling because I want to flag a critical capacity issue before it becomes your problem. We're tracking active high-wind warnings across Wyoming and Montana right now — gusts up to 59 mph in Montana through Thursday — and that is effectively removing flatbed and high-profile van equipment from the I-80 corridor. If you have any construction materials, steel, or oversized freight staged in the Midwest heading west, I need to know about it today so we can get ahead of it."

Value Proposition: ETA has carrier relationships on southern alternative corridors — I-40 and I-10 — that can absorb westbound freight and bypass the disrupted northern routes entirely. Securing this capacity now means your freight moves on schedule while your competitors are scrambling.

Urgency Creator: Based on the forecast, Wyoming winds are expected to ease Thursday-Friday, but Montana continues with elevated conditions through at least Thursday. The backlog of delayed freight that accumulates during this window will create a secondary surge in demand when conditions clear — meaning capacity gets even tighter before it gets better.

Objection Handler: If your customer says 'we'll just wait it out': 'That is a valid approach, but here is the risk: when the winds ease in Wyoming on Thursday, every shipper in the Midwest who has been waiting will hit the market simultaneously. That demand surge on top of a structurally shrinking driver pool will push rates higher than they are right now and capacity will be even harder to find. Moving now or pre-booking for Thursday pickup gives you the best of both — better availability and a rate we can hold today.'

🧭 Savvy Broker's Playbook

šŸ”‘ Executive Signal Summary


šŸ“Š National Market Anchors


🌦 24–72h Capacity and Weather Playbook


🧭 Near-Term Opportunity Map (24–72h)


šŸ’µ Pricing Guardrails and Corridor Adders


šŸš› Carrier Procurement Tactics


šŸ›” Compliance Hardening (immediate)


šŸ“ž Customer Sales Plays (scripts)


šŸ—ŗ Regional Focus and Lane Targets


🧮 Ops Runbook: Next 8 Hours


šŸ“ˆ EOD KPIs


šŸ”® 24–72h Outlook (probability‑weighted)


🧠 Veteran Edge


šŸ“… This Day in History

1870: Hiram Rhodes Revels, a Republican from Mississippi, is sworn into the United States Senate, becoming the first African American ever to sit in Congress.
1951: The first Pan American Games are officially opened in Buenos Aires by Argentine President Juan Perón.
1986: People Power Revolution: President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos flees the nation after 20 years of rule; Corazon Aquino becomes the Philippines' first female president.

šŸ’­ Quote of the Day

"Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change."

— Stephen Hawking