📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report

🔑 Executive Signal Summary

• Capacity is firm while volume fades—paid ≥ posted in key types: Total loads are 119,714 with a strong $2.31/mi national average; Van paid $2.19 ≥ posted $2.18 and Heavy Haul/Specialized paid > posted. Quote to paid anchors, then layer corridor risk or you’ll lose trucks mid-call.
• Southeast freeze = immediate PFF (Protect From Freeze) premiums: Reefer paid $2.49/mi on only 5,791 loads; urgent agricultural rescue freight is pulling equipment. Convert dry van where viable to PFF with strict SOPs (standard operating procedures).
• I‑80 WY winds (up to 75 mph) force transcon reroutes: Avoid WY blowover zones; stage via I‑40/I‑10 with realistic ETAs and a corridor adder. Expect carrier refusals and transit slippage on I‑80/I‑25.
• Flatbed remains the volume engine with a wide buy/sell spread: 50,214 loads; posted $2.47 vs paid $2.21. Buy near paid; only pay up for wind/tarp/time risks and early construction/energy staging.
• Fuel remains a margin threat: Diesel is $3.712/gal nationally; regional disparities (notably West Coast) require explicit FSC (Fuel Surcharge) language and corridor adders on long-hauls.
• OTRI (Outbound Tender Rejection Index) elevated = routing guide fails on weather lanes: Expect higher spot pull-through in Southeast/Mountain West; sell reliability, not discounts.

📊 Tradeable Market Anchors

• Spot market overview
  • Total loads: 119,714 | Loads moved today: 7,247 | Market opportunity: $144.9M
  • Market average rate: $2.31/mi (range $1.57–$2.75) | Diesel (AAA): $3.712/gal
• By equipment (Posted vs Paid)
  • Van: 18,078 loads | $2.18 vs $2.19
  • Reefer: 5,791 loads | $2.57 vs $2.49
  • Flatbed: 50,214 loads | $2.47 vs $2.21
  • Heavy Haul: 27,034 loads | $2.53 vs $2.75
  • Specialized: 11,928 loads | $2.42 vs $2.67
  • LTL (Less Than Truckload)/Partial: 6,669 loads | $1.57 vs $1.71
• Trend context
  • Week-over-week: Loads down from 198,639 and rate up from $2.29/mi → carriers defending floors despite thinner boards.
  • Transparency is high (van paid ≈ posted): Carriers know the market—post near paid to stay credible.

🌦 Weather-to-Capacity Playbook (0–72 hours)

• Southeast FL/GA Freeze (PFF trigger)
  • Impact: Reefer scarcity; ag rescue freight; vans with PFF addendums become viable at premiums; inbound FL carriers demand round-trip economics to avoid deadheads.
  • Actions:
  • Pre-book reefers/teams for 48–72h turns; write PFF SOPs on RCs (Rate Confirmations): setpoint on BOL (Bill of Lading), continuous run, mid-trip temp photos, fuel top-offs.
  • Publish guaranteed reloads for FL inbound to compress buys.
• WY I‑80/I‑25 High Winds (to 75 mph)
  • Impact: Blow-over risk; driver avoidance; transcon delays; corridor premiums.
  • Actions:
  • Route via I‑40/I‑10, increase linehaul with corridor adder; weight loads for stability; avoid light/tall profiles.
• NM I‑40 Fire Weather/High Winds
  • Impact: Visibility, speed reductions, sporadic holds during peak wind.
  • Actions:
  • Pre-warn Tue–Wed slippage, set alternate I‑10/I‑70 routes and add small corridor adder; push team options on JIT (Just-In-Time) automotive.
• Great Lakes Freezing Spray/Gales
  • Impact: Port/intermodal disruption; truck positioning delays inland MI/WI.
  • Actions:
  • Pad ETAs 6–12h, route inland, add winter routing language to RCs.

💵 Pricing Guardrails (Anchor to Paid, then layer corridor risk)

• Van (Paid $2.19/mi)
  • SE PFF (dry-van with heat checks): + $0.10–$0.25/mi
  • Transcon WY avoidance (I‑40/I‑10): + $0.05–$0.12/mi or $150–$300 trip adder
  • West Coast origin (fuel disparity): + $0.08–$0.18/mi with explicit FSC clause
• Reefer (Paid $2.49/mi)
  • FL/GA PFF/Ag rescue: + $0.25–$0.60/mi (teams add + $0.08–$0.12/mi)
  • Great Lakes winter corridors: + $0.08–$0.15/mi + 6–12h ETA pad
  • Post-freeze Tue–Wed northbound reposition: tighten to + $0.05–$0.15/mi
• Flatbed (Paid $2.21/mi)
  • Midwest/Sunbelt staging & energy: + $0.05–$0.12/mi
  • High-wind exposure (WY/NM): + $0.07–$0.15/mi; define wind/tarp thresholds
  • Heavy steel/tall/OD (Over-Dimensional): layer permit/pilot timing + weather buffers
• Heavy Haul (Paid $2.75/mi)
  • Permits/pilots/winter: + $0.05–$0.12/mi where corridor/weather risks exist
• Specialized (Paid $2.67/mi)
  • Post near paid, not posted; add + $0.05–$0.10/mi for winter routing controls
• LTL/Partial (Paid $1.71/mi)
  • Min ticket + dwell caps; sell cross-dock speed and consolidation density

🛣 Lanes To Strike Now

• Atlanta, GA → Jacksonville, FL (Van, PFF)
  • Buy: $2.19 + $0.15–$0.25/mi PFF
  • Tactics: Heater verification, no overnight holds, live photo at arrival, preload northbound reload on RC.
• Jacksonville, FL → Charlotte, NC (Reefer, PFF/Ag)
  • Buy: $2.49 + $0.35–$0.55/mi
  • Tactics: Team preference; BOL setpoint + continuous run; temp/fuel checks at state line.
• Miami, FL → Atlanta, GA (Van/Reefer backhaul protection)
  • Buy: Anchor to paid + $0.12–$0.22/mi for exit premium
  • Tactics: Publish same-day ATL reload; 2–4h appointment windows; toll reimbursement clarity.
• Chicago, IL → NJ/PA (Flatbed, staging surge)
  • Buy: $2.21 + $0.07–$0.12/mi
  • Tactics: Pre-qualify tarping; wind thresholds on RC; Fri return staged into Midwest.
• Ontario, CA → Phoenix, AZ (Van/Reefer, fuel delta)
  • Buy: $2.19/$2.49 anchors + $0.10–$0.18/mi
  • Tactics: Explicit FSC; live load/unload guarantees; pre-book round trip.
• Dallas, TX → SoCal (Team Van for transcon reliability)
  • Buy: $2.19 + $0.07–$0.12/mi
  • Tactics: Route I‑10; document weather detour policy; preload SoCal outbound reload.

🚛 Carrier Procurement Tactics

• Lock micro-pools where scarcity is acute
  • SE reefers/teams for 2–3 cycle turns; write SOPs into RCs and priority dock access.
  • Midwest/Sunbelt flatbeds on 3–5 day calendars; define wind/tarp thresholds and detour reimbursement.
  • West Coast outbound partners with explicit FSC and deadhead minima for week-long commitments.
• Negotiation levers that work today
  • Publish reloads on the RC, flexible appointments (2–4h), fast docs, clear accessorials.
  • Leverage shrinking load count (119,714): “Lock your week now while boards are thinning and rates are firm.”

🤝 Customer Plays That Win Today

• “Rates firm even as volume drops” narrative
  • Open: “Boards have thinned to 119k loads, yet the average is holding at $2.31/mi—capacity is disciplined and weather-disrupted.”
  • Close: “Authorize a slight premium now to guarantee vetted capacity and avoid mid-week outages.”
• Southeast PFF integrity sell
  • Open: “Freeze warnings have converted normal reefers into rescue capacity.”
  • Value: “Our PFF SOPs protect integrity—setpoint on BOL, continuous run, mid-trip temp photos.”
  • Close: “Approve market-aligned pricing to secure a team-capable reefer today.”
• Transcon reliability over WY winds
  • Open: “I‑80 wind closures are forcing I‑40/I‑10 detours.”
  • Value: “We’re quoting all-in with corridor adders and realistic ETAs to avoid change orders.”
  • Close: “Approve the reroute price now to lock a compliant carrier.”
• Fuel transparency
  • Open: “Regional diesel variances are being priced into linehaul.”
  • Close: “We’ll harden FSC in the RC so there are no surprises.”

🛡 Risk, Compliance, and Delay Controls

• Pre-dispatch verification (no exceptions): CDL/MVR (Motor Vehicle Record) ≤30 days, medical card, insurance ACORD, ELD (Electronic Logging Device) make/model, VIN/plate match.
• Authority/compliance monitoring: Daily checks for FMCSA insurance filings and revocations; immediate alternates pre-staged to avoid stranded freight.
• Fraud hardening: No bank/factoring changes via email; call-back to vetted numbers; geo-fenced check calls; seed BOL codes.
• Weather/accessorial clauses on RC: PFF SOPs, weather delay/force majeure, detour reimbursement, wind thresholds (flatbed), seal number and photo protocol.
• Parking/HOS (Hours of Service): Pre-authorize safe overnight locations; push flexible appointments to reduce dwell/HOS burns.

🧠 Veteran Edge: Behavioral Insights You Can Monetize

• Inbound FL psychology: Carriers price in a “trap premium” for deadhead risk—neutralize it by guaranteed reloads and written priority dock times.
• Transparency compresses spread: With van paid ≈ posted, speed and clarity in your RC beats pennies on price; post to paid to prevent last-minute upsells.
• Temporal mispricing: Book SE reefers at premiums now; sell Tue–Wed northbound reposition at smaller adders while competitors overpay both directions.
• Wind risk aversion: High-profile drivers will preemptively avoid I‑80; offer I‑40 plans with clear adders and you’ll convert more first-call trucks.

⏱ 8-Hour Execution Plan (Do These Now)

• Reprice and lock: SE PFF reefers, WY-affected transcon, Great Lakes winter corridors—anchor to paid + corridor adders; insert weather/FSC clauses.
• Secure 5–10 SE reefers/teams for 48–72h turns with PFF SOPs on RCs; publish northbound reloads.
• Calendar flatbeds (Midwest/Sunbelt) for 3–5 days; set wind/tarp thresholds and return plans.
• Mine NE outbound to capture “escape trucks”; sell fast turns south to compress buy rates.
• Proactive advisories: Send delay memos for WY/NM and Great Lakes; adjust ETAs now.
• Compliance sweep on all weather lanes; pre-stage alternates for any carrier at risk of revocation.

📈 EOD KPIs

• SE reefer coverage: ≥80% of Mon–Tue tenders with PFF SOPs confirmed.
• Transcon reroute adoption: ≥75% customer acceptance of corridor adders/ETAs.
• Flatbed margin: ≥150–250 bps above book by buying near $2.21 and selling on SOP/weather.
• FSC adoption: ≥90% of RCs include explicit FSC and deadhead minima.
• Carrier fall-off (weather lanes): ≤2.5% with confirmed alternates.

🔮 48–72 Hour Outlook (Probability-Weighted)

• High (70%): SE freeze urgency eases by Tue; true capacity recovery lags 12–24h due to HOS resets—brief northbound reefer softening.
• High (75%): WY winds continue disrupting I‑80; I‑40/I‑10 lanes pick up modest volume and rates.
• Medium (60%): NM I‑40 winds peak Tue–Wed; isolated closures and 4–8h slippage; corridor adders validated.
• High (70%): Flatbed demand remains elevated into early March (construction/energy staging); keep buying near paid and sell on risk/time.