📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report

⛈️ Weather Impact Cascade

• Immediate Operational Impact: Sunday night through Monday morning represents the highest-risk operational window for the Southeast freeze event. Georgia's forecast shows 44°F on Monday with NW winds 16-29 mph — while the daytime high is manageable, overnight lows in Northern Georgia and Northern Florida may remain near or below freezing based on the active alert indicating temperatures as low as 25°F. Carriers transiting I-75 southbound should be aware of potential 45 mph crosswind gusts (Red Flag warning) creating blow-over risk for high-profile and empty trailers. In the Pacific Northwest, Oregon shows persistent south winds of 26-40 mph on Sunday and light rain with SSW winds 22-34 mph continuing through Monday-Tuesday, sustaining disruption on US-101 and coastal connector routes to I-5. In the Great Lakes corridor, Michigan forecasts show snow showers through the week with temperatures as low as 14°F on Monday, reinforcing the Lake Superior freezing spray and gale warning (WX3592F409) impact on northern freight corridors.
• Secondary Market Effects: The Southeast freeze, though brief, will have secondary effects on the dry van market as shippers who cannot secure reefer capacity delay shipments or reroute freight. This delay accumulation may create a brief mid-week volume surge on standard dry van lanes in the Southeast as held freight releases simultaneously. In the Midwest, the CDL audit fallout will drive some shippers to extend lead times or pre-book capacity further in advance than normal, which could create unusual mid-week activity on the spot board as shippers who typically book same-day begin booking 2-3 days ahead.
• Regional Spillover Analysis: The Southeast freeze is creating a northbound capacity pull that may tighten reefer availability in the Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, Carolinas) as equipment repositions south. Shippers in Charlotte and Raleigh who rely on reefer capacity for outbound produce or perishables should be aware that their local equipment pool is being drawn toward the emergency zone. The Oregon coastal storm, with winds forecast at 26-40 mph on Sunday and sustained disruption through Tuesday, may delay freight connecting from coastal Oregon to the I-5 mainline, creating downstream delays into California and Nevada markets. As Oregon clears by Wednesday (forecast shows sunny, 40°F with W winds 9-14 mph), expect a brief flush of held freight onto the I-5 southbound corridor.
• Recovery Timeline: Southeast freeze: Based on forecast data, Georgia temperatures reach 52°F by Tuesday and 66°F by Wednesday. The acute PFF requirement is likely to expire by Monday evening or Tuesday morning. Full operational normalization for the Southeast is expected by Wednesday. Oregon coastal disruption: Forecast shows clearing by Wednesday (sunny, 40°F, light winds), meaning I-5 connectivity should normalize by Wednesday-Thursday. Great Lakes/Michigan: Snow showers persist through the entire 5-day forecast window with no clear recovery indicated, suggesting sustained disruption to northern Great Lakes freight corridors through at least Thursday. Wisconsin similarly shows persistent snow through Thursday with no clear clearing window.

News Impact Timeline

• Immediate Operational Reality: Today and tomorrow, the Illinois CDL audit fallout is the dominant operational disruptor in the Midwest. Carriers are actively pulling non-compliant drivers from service to avoid FMCSA penalties. Brokers covering loads out of Chicago and Northern Illinois should assume reduced carrier acceptance rates and higher bounce rates on tenders to carriers with unknown compliance status. The PFF emergency in the Southeast requires immediate action — any delay in sourcing temperature-controlled capacity for at-risk freight extends the window of shipper exposure to freeze damage liability.
• 3-Day Market Implications: By Wednesday, the CDL audit impact will have matured into a more visible market reality — carriers with full compliance will have captured a disproportionate share of available loads and will begin raising rates more aggressively, knowing their non-compliant competitors are sidelined. Expect Chicago outbound rates to show a more pronounced upward trend by Wednesday-Thursday. The FMCSA advisory committee nominations (ALERT_1) signal continued regulatory pressure — brokers should begin updating their compliance communication templates now rather than reacting when new rules are finalized.
• Week-Ahead Positioning: By next weekend, the market will likely show the Southeast stabilizing at post-freeze normal rates, the Midwest showing structurally tighter capacity than this time last week, and the Pacific Northwest returning to normal operational patterns. The overarching trend for the week ahead is that compliant, well-vetted carriers will continue to capture an outsized share of available freight as the regulatory floor rises. Brokers who have invested in carrier compliance verification will find their carrier networks are better positioned than those who relied on volume over quality.
• Regulatory Compliance Impacts: The 20% CDL failure rate in Illinois is not isolated — it signals that the FMCSA's broader crackdown on non-domiciled CDL programs will likely extend to other states with similar license structures. Brokers should treat the Illinois audit as a preview and begin reviewing their carrier panels for non-domiciled CDL exposure across all regions, not just the Midwest. Additionally, with FMCSA resources reportedly stretched (ALERT_7), the burden of fraud and identity verification falls entirely on brokers — double-brokering risk is elevated in any market where cheap capacity suddenly appears to fill a void left by sidelined non-compliant carriers.

Demand Shift Indicators

• Regional Demand Predictions: The Southeast will experience a two-phase demand pattern this week. Phase 1 (Sunday night through Tuesday): Acute inbound demand for reefer and PFF-capable equipment as shippers protect freeze-vulnerable freight. Phase 2 (Wednesday onward): A likely surge in outbound agricultural freight from Northern Florida and Southern Georgia as growers move rescued crops northbound, potentially generating a brief northbound rate spike on the ATL-Charlotte and Jacksonville-Atlanta corridors. The Midwest will experience sustained outbound rate pressure through the week as the CDL audit fallout continues to shrink the compliant driver pool — this is a structural shift, not a temporary disruption.
• Seasonal Transition Analysis: The current market is showing an unusual early-season pattern. Typically, late February in the Southeast sees gradual pre-spring produce movement building slowly. The freeze event is compressing what would normally be a 3-4 week demand ramp into a 48-72 hour emergency window. This creates higher peak rates but a shorter duration opportunity than a normal seasonal build. In the Midwest, the CDL audit is accelerating what would have been a gradual spring capacity tightening as construction season approaches — brokers should expect the Midwest to be structurally tighter earlier than historical seasonal norms.
• Economic Leading Indicators: The high average spot rate ($2.31/mile) despite a 40% load volume drop is a strong leading indicator that shippers are successfully routing more freight through primary guides but are paying significant premiums when those guides fail. This pattern typically precedes a near-term increase in contract rate renegotiations as shippers seek to lock in capacity commitments before spot market conditions worsen. Diesel holding at $3.71/gallon provides carriers a stable cost floor, reducing their incentive to accept below-market loads and sustaining the rate floor.
• Capacity Flow Predictions: Reefer equipment currently being pulled into the Southeast for the freeze emergency will likely begin repositioning northward by mid-week as the weather event clears. This repositioning may create a brief window of loose reefer capacity in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest by Thursday-Friday. Flatbed equipment in the Southeast may absorb some of the construction season staging demand that was delayed by weekend weather, creating a moderate tightening in that sector later in the week. Van capacity in the Northeast, currently loosening as carriers escape post-storm conditions, is likely to remain softer than other regions through mid-week.

Southeast Shipper Requiring Pff Or Temperature-Controlled Capacity Today

Opening Script: "Hi [Customer Name], this is [Your Name] at ETA. I'm reaching out because we have active Freeze Warnings in Northern Florida and Southeast Georgia right now, with temperatures dropping as low as 25°F overnight. Any freight you have moving southbound into Florida or sitting in Northern Georgia tonight is at risk if it's not under Protect From Freeze protocols. We're already seeing reefer capacity disappear from the market in real time — I want to make sure your freight is covered before the remaining equipment is absorbed."

Value Proposition: ETA has already identified and pre-qualified reefer carriers in the upper Southeast corridor who are positioned to move tonight. You won't have to scramble on the open spot market where capacity is already critically short and carriers are demanding significant premiums.

Urgency Creator: Based on the 5-day forecast, Georgia warms to 66°F by Wednesday and Florida recovers to 70°F — but tonight and Monday morning represent the highest freeze risk window. The carriers covering this freight are being booked right now. This window is approximately 24-48 hours.

Objection Handler: If the customer says 'we'll just use our standard dry van carrier': Respond — 'I understand the instinct to stay with your routing guide, but the issue is that dry van equipment without insulation does not meet PFF requirements. If your freight sustains cold damage tonight, the liability exposure and claim cost will far exceed any rate premium today. We can document the weather alert and the PFF requirement in the load confirmation to protect both of us.'

Midwest Shipper Experiencing Outbound Delays Or Carrier No-Shows Due To Cdl Audit Fallout

Opening Script: "Hi [Customer Name], this is [Your Name] at ETA. I wanted to flag something that may be impacting your outbound freight today. A federal audit just revealed a 20% failure rate in Illinois' non-domiciled CDL program, which means roughly 1 in 5 drivers operating under those licenses is being sidelined right now. If you're seeing carrier cancellations or delayed pickups out of the Chicago market, this is likely why. The good news is ETA pre-screens all carriers for FMCSA compliance, so we can step in with vetted capacity that won't put your shipment — or your compliance record — at risk."

Value Proposition: Using a non-compliant carrier creates co-liability exposure for your business under current FMCSA broker responsibility standards. ETA's carrier vetting process specifically screens for CDL compliance, insurance currency, and safety ratings — giving you documentation that protects you in an audit environment.

Urgency Creator: The driver pool contraction in Illinois is structural, not temporary. Every day that passes, fewer non-compliant drivers are available, which means the remaining compliant carriers are being booked faster. Rates out of Chicago are already climbing. Locking in capacity now versus next week is the difference between market rate and a panic premium.

Objection Handler: If the customer says 'our current carrier has always been reliable': Respond — 'I'm not suggesting they aren't a good carrier — this audit is catching drivers who may not even know their license has an issue. The 20% failure rate means this isn't isolated to bad actors. If you'd like, we can run a quick compliance check on your carrier's active drivers at no cost to you, just to confirm you're protected.'

Standard Shipper Pushing Back On Elevated Spot Rates Given The Overall Load Volume Drop

Opening Script: "Hi [Customer Name], I know what you're probably seeing on your end — the overall number of loads in the spot market dropped about 40% from last week, from roughly 198,000 loads down to around 119,000. Normally that would mean rates go down. But the average spot rate has actually climbed to $2.31 per mile. I want to walk you through why that is, because it directly affects what I can offer you today."

Value Proposition: The freight remaining on the spot market right now is predominantly urgent, specialized, or routing into markets with active weather events or regulatory enforcement zones. Carriers are being highly selective. The cheap capacity that was filling your loads a few weeks ago has been systematically removed from the market by compliance audits and weather repositioning. What you're buying today is reliable, compliant capacity — which has a higher floor.

Urgency Creator: Diesel is holding at $3.71 per gallon, which gives carriers a stable but elevated cost baseline. With the driver pool shrinking due to CDL audits and carriers repositioning around weather, there is no near-term catalyst for rate relief. The shipper who locks in capacity commitments now will be better positioned than one who waits for rates to drop.

Objection Handler: If the customer says 'rates were lower two weeks ago': Respond — 'You're right, and the reason is structural rather than cyclical. Two weeks ago, the CDL audits hadn't hit Illinois yet and the Southeast freeze wasn't on the forecast. Both of those events have permanently removed a segment of cheap capacity from the market. We're not seeing a temporary spike — we're seeing the market repricing to reflect the actual cost of compliant, reliable capacity.'