📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report

🔑 Executive Signal Summary

• Carrier leverage is up across the board: Paid > Posted in Van (+$0.04/mi to $2.22), Reefer (+$0.04/mi to $2.65), Flatbed (+$0.04/mi to $2.44), Specialized (+$0.07/mi to $2.44); Heavy Haul is the lone buyer edge (−$0.01/mi to $2.46).
• Weather is the profit swing factor: I-5 Grapevine, I-80 WY/UT, and LA flooding are dislocating trucks; build 24–48 hour lead time, route around closures, and pre-authorize weather premiums/accessorials.
• Southeast is today’s sweet spot: Stable capacity with firming rates and strong volume ex-ATL/CLT and JAX; build round-trips and promise reloads to cap buy rates.
• Diesel is not the driver today: $3.647/gal and slightly moderating; price primarily for capacity scarcity and weather risk, not fuel.
• Compliance risk is rising: 9 ELDs revoked; verify carrier ELDs now to avoid April 14 out-of-service surprises and mid-transit fall-offs.
• Flatbed and specialized tightening = timing opportunity: Quote early, hold capacity with calendar commitments, and sell “clean runs” away from Western weather to keep buy-side in check.
• Expect OTRI (Outbound Tender Rejection Index) to pop in PSW/Mountain West: Prep shippers for refusals, ETAs with buffers, and real-time visibility expectations.

📊 Market Pulse You Can Price Off (Use-Now Data)

• National snapshot: Total load volumes 113,305; National average $2.26/mi (range $1.52–$2.65); Diesel $3.647/gal.
• Vans: 31,839 loads; Posted $2.18 vs Paid $2.22.
  • Action: Target buys near $2.20–$2.25 on headhaul SE lanes; pay-to-post spread implies you must lead with realistic offers or risk losing trucks to faster brokers.
• Reefers: 13,750 loads; Posted $2.61 vs Paid $2.65.
  • Action: Add freeze-protection SOPs and weather buffers on West/North moves; book 24–48 hours ahead on produce-adjacent lanes (FL ramping).
• Flatbed (open deck): 85,334 loads; Posted $2.40 vs Paid $2.44.
  • Action: Tightening; pre-sell appointment/crane control, and lock carriers with next-load bundles to prevent mid-day rate creep.
• Heavy Haul (permits/oversize): 37,352 loads; Posted $2.47 vs Paid $2.46.
  • Action: Buyer edge; pre-clear permits/pilots and use that speed to win at flat buys.
• Specialized: 20,358 loads; Posted $2.37 vs Paid $2.44.
  • Action: Scarcer gear; quote with gear-specific premiums (tarp sizes, conestoga, multi-axle) and calendar commitments.
• LTL/Partial: 10,006 loads; Posted $1.52 vs Paid $1.66.
  • Action: Consolidate windows and commit round-trips for partial carriers; paid premium implies urgency.

🌦 Weather Triage Playbook (24–72 hours)

• Prioritize California/PSW disruptions:
  • Action: I-5 Grapevine and CA/OR Siskiyou Summit require chains and cause closures; route alternatives only if safe (coastal 101 is slower; CA-58/Tehachapi may also face controls). Pad ETAs and get shipper sign-off.
  • Action: For LA basin flooding/mudslide risk, hard-schedule local P&D with ample slack, stage trailers outside hazard zones, and swap tractors to keep freight moving.
• Rockies and High Plains risk (WY/CO UT/NV):
  • Action: Avoid light/empty trailers on I-80/I-25 high-wind segments; prefer heavier loads or route via I-40 when feasible. Add “high-profile vehicle restriction” clauses to rate cons.
• Reefer-specific SOPs:
  • Action: Freeze-protect confirmations on BOL, temperature set-point screenshots, and two-hour call checks overnight during storm moves. Pre-approve layover/detention for weather holds.

🛣 Lane Moves That Pay Today

• ATL, GA → CLT, NC (van short-haul):
  • Action: Book by morning dispatch for best tender acceptance. Price slightly above posted to keep same-day capacity and hold the truck for an immediate reload out of CLT back to GA/AL.
• JAX, FL → BNA (Nashville, TN) (van/reefer):
  • Action: Northbound demand is heating; tie carrier down with a backhaul commitment to FL/GA to control today’s rate.
• Outbound SoCal (all types):
  • Action: Require weather premiums, flexible appointments, and alternative routings. Quote with explicit “weather clause” and service windows.
• I-80 WY/UT crossings (all types, esp. van/reefer):
  • Action: Either price premium with hard slack or re-route south. Avoid tenders that force empty miles into the corridor.

🎯 Sales Plays That Win Today

• Lead with the market narrative:
  • Action: “Paid rates are exceeding posted across van, reefer, flatbed, and specialized; severe Western weather is dislocating trucks. To hold reliable capacity we need 24–48 hour booking windows and weather-adjusted authorizations.”
• Pre-authorization kit:
  • Action: Secure written approval for weather delay accessorials, chain law compliance, layovers, and flexible delivery windows.
• SE opportunity framing:
  • Action: Offer round-trip programs ex-ATL/CLT/JAX with guaranteed returns to cap rate volatility and improve on-time KPIs.
• Compliance assurance:
  • Action: Promote your ELD verification and carrier vetting as a risk shield given FMCSA crackdowns—reduces fall-offs and OOS risks for shippers.

🚛 Carrier Sourcing and Negotiation

• Sell the “clean run”:
  • Action: Steer carriers to Southeast/Mid-South where roads are clear and reloads are abundant; bundle reloads and minimize deadhead to justify moderated rates.
• Lock flatbed capacity early:
  • Action: Use appointment and crane control to anchor schedules; carriers will trade a few cents for predictability and guaranteed reloads.
• Reefer reliability premium:
  • Action: Reward carriers with proven temp logs and recent cold-weather performance; build them into rolling calendars for 72 hours.

🧭 Pricing Guardrails (Broker-Protective)

• Use paid-posted spreads as your floor:
  • Action: Start offers near current paid averages on tight lanes (Van ~$2.22, Reefer ~$2.65, Flatbed ~$2.44, Specialized ~$2.44); only chase above when weather/geo risk requires.
• Heavy Haul is your margin anchor:
  • Action: With Paid < Posted, pre-clearance lets you buy fast and sell on speed-to-serve. Quote transit buffers for permit timing.
• Accessorial discipline:
  • Action: Itemize weather clauses, driver assist, tarp/frozen-protect, and detention up front; fewer renegotiations, better net.

🧪 Risk Controls and SOPs

• Weather clause and ETA buffers:
  • Action: Add “Severe Weather Exception” terms to all West/Mountain West tenders; daily proactive updates to shippers reduce claims and chargebacks.
• ELD/device verification (before tender):
  • Action: Collect ELD make/model, match to FMCSA list, request last roadside inspection date, and confirm recent logs screenshot; document in the load file.
• Safety-first routing:
  • Action: Prohibit high-profile empties on I-80 WY in high-wind advisories; dispatchers to confirm weight and route at assignment time.
• HOS (Hours of Service) emergency use:
  • Action: Where state emergency declarations apply, append shipper attestation to the rate con and retain supporting documents for audit.

🧩 Competitive Positioning

• Speed-to-lock beats pennies:
  • Action: In a paid>posted environment, first credible offer + reload plan consistently wins; aim for sub-15-minute tender-to-carrier-quote cycle times on hot lanes.
• Visibility is a sales weapon:
  • Action: Push real-time tracking and predictive ETAs; shippers are expecting “Amazon-like” visibility—use this to justify locking capacity early at firm rates.

📈 KPIs to Watch Today

• Book-to-quote ratio > 35%: Confirms your offers match market reality in tight zones.
• Carrier fall-off < 4%: Weather and compliance-tested carriers should hold tenders.
• Deadhead ≤ 40 miles avg: Bundled reloads and SE loops help maintain target.
• Time-to-cover < 60 minutes on priority loads: Especially ex-ATL/CLT/JAX and TX hubs.

🗺 24–72 Hour Execution Plan

• 0–2 hours:
  • Action: Call all West-impacted shippers; secure weather premiums and flexible deliveries. Pre-book flatbed and reefer calendars in SE/TX for next 2 days.
• Next 6–8 hours:
  • Action: Lock ATL↔CLT and JAX→BNA round-trips; publish carrier-ready reloads on rate cons. Pre-clear heavy-haul permits on any likely wins to slash cycle time.
• Next 24–48 hours:
  • Action: Reprice any loads transiting I-5/I-80 with buffers; rotate carriers from West to SE to stabilize service; refresh ELD compliance checks on all new carriers.

🚫 What Not To Do

• Do not low-ball in PSW/Mountain West: Carriers have options; you’ll lose the truck and the clock.
• Do not accept tight delivery windows in storm zones: Convert to service windows or add explicit exceptions.
• Do not tender to unverified ELD fleets: April 14 risk window means potential mid-lane OOS.

🧠 Broker Psychology Edge

• Frame certainty as currency:
  • Action: Carriers will trade a few cents for guaranteed reloads, clear routing, and quick dispatch instructions. Shippers will pay for predictability and transparency today—package both.