📊 Daily Market Intelligence Report
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
7:00 AM CST
📊 Top-Line Summary
Spot market volumes have normalized to 135,923 loads following yesterday's post-weekend surge, but rate pressure remains elevated across all equipment types with paid rates consistently exceeding posted averages. The most critical operational factor today is the severe winter weather slamming the West Coast, specifically the I-5 corridor in Southern California and Oregon, where heavy snow and flooding are physically displacing capacity and forcing rate premiums for route deviations. While national load counts have dipped from yesterday's high, the van paid rate of $2.20/mile and reefer paid rate of $2.66/mile indicate that carriers still hold leverage in key lanes. Brokers should focus on capitalizing on the $170.2M market opportunity by targeting urgent freight in weather-impacted zones where shippers are desperate for reliable capacity.
⛽ Diesel Price Analysis
AAA Historical Price Comparison
🌦️ Weather & Seasonal Intelligence
Current Major Weather Events:
- I-5 Grapevine Snow & SoCal Flooding (Southern California (CA, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles Counties)): Major disruption on I-5 corridor due to heavy snow (Grapevine) and flash flooding; expect significant delays and capacity displacement.
- Pacific Northwest Winter Storm (Southern Oregon & Northern California (OR, Jackson, Josephine Counties; CA, Siskiyou County)): Heavy snow impacting I-5 from the CA/OR border north to Medford; travel difficult to impossible, severing the primary north-south freight artery.
- Mountain West High Winds (Wyoming (WY, Converse, Carbon, Platte Counties)): Wind gusts 65-70 mph creating extreme blow-over risk for light/empty trailers on I-80 and I-25; likely closures for high-profile vehicles.
- Wasatch/Sierra Snow Event (Utah & Nevada (UT, Wasatch Mtns; NV, Reno/Carson City)): Heavy snow impacting I-80 through the Sierra Nevada and Wasatch ranges; chain controls and slower transit times expected.
💰 Financial Market Indicators
- Diesel Futures: Diesel prices remain relatively stable at $3.651, providing a predictable cost baseline for carriers despite regional weather disruptions.
- Carrier Financial Health: Carriers in the spot market are seeing improved margins this week with paid rates exceeding posted averages in van and reefer sectors.
- Economic Indicators: Strong spot market volumes in flatbed suggest continued resilience in industrial and construction sectors despite broader economic uncertainty.
📰 Impactful News Analysis
-
Reefer Spot Rates Surge 45¢/Mile Amid Midwest Storms 🔗:
The 45-cent spike in reefer rates highlights the extreme volatility weather can introduce to temperature-controlled freight. Brokers should use this data to justify higher rates to customers for freeze-protect loads, noting that capacity is shifting to cover storm-impacted regions. The structural tightness mentioned suggests this isn't just a blip, but a seasonal reality.
-
Truckload Rates Forecast to Remain Stable with Modest Upward Pressure 🔗:
While 2026 forecasts predict stability, the 'modest upward pressure' is already visible in today's paid vs. posted rate spreads. Brokers should advise shippers that while contract rates may be flat, the spot market is reacting dynamically to immediate constraints. This reinforces the value of a broker's ability to source flexible capacity when contract carriers fail.
-
Automotive Supply Chains Fracturing Due to Tariffs and Disruption 🔗:
With 45% of manufacturers citing supply chain disruption as their top challenge, brokers have an opportunity to pitch expedited and recovery logistics solutions. The shift toward 'resilience' over 'cost' means brokers can command premiums for guaranteed capacity on critical automotive lanes, especially those involving cross-border or multi-stop routes.
-
Sky International Expands Freight Forwarding Capabilities 🔗:
The expansion of regional carriers into broader freight forwarding roles signals increased competition for end-to-end logistics control. Brokers should emphasize their domestic agility and specialized carrier networks to compete against these integrated providers, focusing on the 'final mile' and domestic legs where global forwarders often struggle.
🔍 Competitive Intelligence
- Digital Load Board Trends: Paid rates are currently exceeding posted rates in Reefer ($2.66 vs $2.62) and Heavy Haul ($2.50 vs $2.48), indicating a 'hidden' seller's market where carriers are negotiating successfully upwards.
- Capacity Alerts: Capacity is severely restricted along the entire I-5 corridor from Los Angeles to Medford, OR due to simultaneous winter storms; expect outbound rates from CA and OR to spike.
- Technology Disruptions: Digital freight matching is accelerating price transparency, but the current weather chaos proves the enduring value of human brokerage in managing exceptions and navigating physical disruptions that algorithms miss.
👥 Customer Sector Analysis
- Retail: Retail replenishment is driving steady van demand, with weather delays likely to create urgent 'catch-up' freight needs later in the week.
- Manufacturing: Industrial freight remains strong as evidenced by high flatbed volumes, though wind delays in the Mountain West may impact JIT delivery schedules.
- Agriculture: Produce shipping is facing critical challenges in the West; freeze protection is mandatory, and harvest delays due to flooding may create a temporary lull followed by a surge.
- Automotive: Auto parts supply chains are vulnerable to the I-5 and I-80 disruptions; expect expedited requests to bypass weather delays for assembly plants.
🗺️ Regional & Lane Analysis
📍 Primary Region Focus: Southeast (Atlanta/Charlotte Hubs)
While the West Coast is mired in weather chaos, the Southeast offers the most stable and profitable environment for brokers today. Capacity is manageable, and rates are firming without the extreme volatility of storm-impacted zones. The region is seeing healthy manufacturing and retail outflows, and with carriers potentially avoiding the West, capacity may be slightly more abundant here, allowing for better margin management on outbound freight.
🛣️ Key Lane Watch
Atlanta, GA → Miami, FL:
This lane remains a high-volume staple with consistent demand. Rates are currently stable, but inbound Florida capacity can be tight as carriers look for favorable backhauls. The lane is insulated from the severe weather affecting the rest of the country.
Charlotte, NC → Chicago, IL:
This backhaul lane connects the Southeast manufacturing hub to the Midwest rail/distribution network. Demand is steady, driven by industrial goods and textiles. Weather in the Midwest is currently clearer than the West, making this a reliable corridor.
🚨 Actionable Alerts
Rate Spike Warnings:
- Outbound Southern California (Los Angeles/Ontario) due to I-5 Grapevine issues
- Pacific Northwest regional lanes due to I-5 closures at CA/OR border
- Reefer loads nationwide requiring freeze protection
Capacity Shortage Alerts:
- Critical shortage of winter-equipped trucks in CA/OR/WA; Reefer capacity tight nationally
Opportunity Zones:
- Southeast (GA/NC/SC) for stable margins
- Flatbed loads in the South/Southeast where weather is clear
🎯 Strategic Recommendations for Today
💼 For Customer Sales:
Narrative: The West Coast is currently a major chokepoint due to severe winter weather closing primary arteries like I-5. We are seeing rates spike for any freight moving in/out of CA and OR. For non-Western freight, the market is stable, and we can offer reliable service.
Action: Proactively notify customers with Western freight of potential delays. Push for 'freeze protect' surcharges on all temperature-sensitive loads.
🚛 For Carrier Reps:
Sourcing Focus: Focus on sourcing carriers already located inside the weather zones for short-haul recovery loads at premium rates. For national freight, target Southeast regional carriers.
Negotiation Leverage: For loads heading INTO the West, warn carriers of the weather delays and potential for getting stuck. For loads in the Southeast, use the 'clean weather' argument to keep rates competitive.
🔑 Executive Signal Summary
- West Coast weather is the profit swing factor: I-5 Grapevine snow, CA/OR flooding, and Mountain West wind/snow are physically displacing trucks and spiking premiums on any route touching those corridors.
- Reefer and Heavy Haul favor carriers; Van/Flatbed/Specialized slightly favor buyers: Paid vs. Posted spreads signal where you must lead with firm premiums (reefer, heavy haul) and where disciplined buys can still win (van, flat, specialized).
- Southeast is today’s margin zone: Stable, less volatile, and firm demand out of ATL/CLT with reliable reload density. Build round-trips and cap your buy-side.
- Act on urgency now: Total loads 135,923, with $170.2M in market opportunity and 41,140 loads already moved—fast, credible offers + reload plans beat pennies in tight pockets.
- Fuel stable; price for risk, not diesel: Diesel at $3.651/gal. Keep FSC steady; monetize weather delays, chain laws, and reliability.
📊 Market Pulse You Can Price Off (Use-Now Numbers)
National Snapshot
- Total loads: 135,923; Market opportunity: $170.2M; Avg rate: $2.28/mi (range $1.53–$2.66); Diesel: $3.651/gal.
- Loads moved today: 41,140 (momentum confirms active buyer/seller engagement—speed matters).
Vans — Balanced but buyer-tilt
- 21,794 loads; Posted $2.21 vs Paid $2.20 (−$0.01).
- Action: Buy disciplined in the Southeast and Midwest; expect premiums or refusals into/out of CA/OR. Hold the line on “clean weather” lanes and bundle reloads to keep buy rates tight.
Reefers — Carrier leverage, pay early
- 8,176 loads; Posted $2.62 vs Paid $2.66 (+$0.04).
- Action: Lead above posted for freeze-protect and any West-touching freight. Secure set-point confirmations and add weather buffers to avoid costly recoveries.
Flatbeds — Volume strong, slight buyer edge
- 56,656 loads; Posted $2.42 vs Paid $2.39 (−$0.03).
- Action: Use schedule/chassis/crane control to buy under posted. Watch WY/NV/UT wind and snow; avoid committing light loads through high-wind corridors.
Heavy Haul — Quiet carrier edge
- 28,023 loads; Posted $2.48 vs Paid $2.50 (+$0.02).
- Action: Win on speed-to-permit and pre-cleared escorts; expect carriers to ask for premiums into storm belts.
Specialized — Slight buyer edge
- 13,688 loads; Posted $2.36 vs Paid $2.35 (−$0.01).
- Action: Quote tight with gear-specific clarity (conestoga, multi-axle) and appointment control to prevent mid-move repricing.
LTL/Partial — Urgency premium
- 7,586 loads; Posted $1.53 vs Paid $1.62 (+$0.09).
- Action: Consolidate windows and sell speed/reliability. Partial carriers will prioritize guaranteed reloads over spot pennies.
🌦 Weather Triage and Routing (Next 24–72 Hours)
- Southern CA I-5 Grapevine + LA/Ventura Flooding
- Actions: Add “Severe Weather Exception” to rate cons. Require flexible delivery windows. Consider CA-101 or timing the Grapevine reopening; CA-58/Tehachapi may also see controls—do not overpromise ETAs.
- CA/OR Border to Medford (Siskiyou/Jackson)
- Actions: Chain laws likely; avoid scheduling light/empty repositioning over the pass. Use in-zone carriers for short-haul recovery at premium rates.
- WY I-80/I-25 High Winds (65–70 mph)
- Actions: Prohibit high-profile empties. Re-route via I-70/I-40 where feasible. Price weather premiums or pass on risky tenders.
- UT Wasatch + NV Reno-Carson Snow
- Actions: Pad transit by 12–24 hours; add layover/chain accessorials. Prioritize heavier loads for stability and safer passage.
🧭 Regional & Lane Plays (Cover Now)
- Southeast Round-Trip Engine (ATL/CLT Hubs)
- Actions:
- ATL, GA ↔ CLT, NC (Dry Van): Build day-cabs and same-day turns. Offer carriers a committed return to cap outbound rates.
- ATL, GA → MIA, FL (Van/Reefer): Stable demand; lock northbound reloads (MIA/TPA → ATL/CLT) during booking to temper southbound rates.
- CLT, NC → CHI, IL (Van): Reliable corridor, less weather risk than West. Bundle CHI-area reloads back to the Carolinas.
- Texas Triangle (DFW/HOU/SAT)
- Actions: Use as a weather-safe capacity pool. Build 2–3 day calendars for flatbed and van to offset West-driven volatility.
- West Recovery Plays
- Actions:
- Short-haul, in-zone rescue freight (SoCal basin, NorCal to Redding/Medford) with explicit weather premiums and soft windows.
- Avoid committing trucks INTO the West unless the premium covers potential 24–48h dwell.
💼 Customer Plays and Talk Tracks
- Set expectations early
- Actions:
- “I-5 is intermittently impaired; we’re building 12–24h buffers and routing around closures. To hold reliable trucks today, we’ll need weather-adjusted authorizations and freeze-protect surcharges where applicable.”
- Convert firm appointment times in storm zones to service windows and document on the BOL/rate con.
- Value framing over price haggling
- Actions:
- Use today’s Paid > Posted proof points in Reefer ($2.66 vs $2.62) and Heavy Haul ($2.50 vs $2.48) to justify premiums on urgent loads.
- For non-West freight, offer reliability guarantees (visibility, backup plans) at stable rates to win tenders away from competitors.
🚛 Carrier Sourcing and Negotiation
- Source in-zone for West recovery
- Actions: Prioritize carriers already inside SoCal/OR/WA; pay premiums but avoid deadhead across closures. Load them twice in 24–36h with local/regional work.
- Bundle reloads to buy under posted elsewhere
- Actions: In SE/Midwest, present the reload plan upfront to trade carriers a few cents for certainty; keep deadhead ≤ 40 miles.
- De-risk reefer coverage
- Actions: Require temp logs/screenshots, recent cold-weather performance, and fuel level checks. Pay a small premium to proven carriers to avoid expensive recoveries.
🧰 Pricing Guardrails and Accessorial Discipline
- Use Paid as the floor on tight gear
- Actions:
- Reefer: Start near $2.66/mi and add $0.05–$0.20 for freeze-protect/storm routing; hard-cap by service window flexibility.
- Heavy Haul: Start near $2.50/mi; monetize pre-cleared permits/pilots with speed-to-serve premiums.
- Exploit buyer edges
- Actions:
- Van: Start at $2.20/mi in clean-weather corridors; allow +$0.05–$0.15 into West or for tight delivery windows.
- Flatbed: Start at $2.39/mi with schedule control; climb only when crane/appointment constraints force it.
- Accessorials to pre-authorize
- Actions: Weather delay layover (calendar day), chain-up pay, freeze-protect surcharge, reconsignment, and detention grace removal during storms. Itemize up front to prevent renegotiation.
🧪 Risk Controls and Compliance
- Weather Clause + ETA Buffers
- Actions: Add “Severe Weather Exception” to all West/Mountain West loads; push proactive milestone updates every 4 hours during events.
- ELD/Carrier Vetting (FMCSA crackdowns)
- Actions: Verify ELD make/model vs. FMCSA list; request last roadside inspection date and log screenshots. Do not tender to carriers failing verification.
- Fraud Controls
- Actions: Enforce callback verification on bank changes; do not accept routing changes via email-only; confirm MC/DOT matches dispatch phone numbers.
- Safety-first routing
- Actions: Ban high-profile empties on WY I-80/I-25 under wind advisories; reroute or reschedule.
📈 KPIs to Hit Today
- Book-to-Quote ≥ 35% in SE loops (confirms pricing fit).
- Time-to-Cover ≤ 60 minutes on hot lanes and West recovery.
- Carrier Fall-off ≤ 4% with vetted ELDs + weather clauses.
- Average Deadhead ≤ 40 miles via reload bundling.
- On-Time Pickup ≥ 95% in clean-weather regions; ≥ 85% in storm zones with documented exceptions.
🔄 Scenario Outlook (48–72 Hours)
- Base case (60%): Intermittent I-5 disruptions persist; reefer/heavy haul premiums hold; SE stays stable and margin-friendly.
- Bullish for carriers (25%): Prolonged closures + additional Mountain West impacts push reefer/van premiums higher by $0.05–$0.12 on West-affected lanes.
- Normalization (15%): Weather eases; paid-posted spreads compress in van/reefer; flatbed retains buyer leverage where wind risk subsides.
🗺️ 24–48 Hour Execution Plan
- Next 0–2 hours
- Actions: Call Western-region shippers, secure weather premiums and flexible windows. Pre-book reefer calendars for freeze-protect moves, prioritize proven carriers.
- Next 6–8 hours
- Actions: Lock SE round-trips (ATL↔CLT, ATL→MIA with committed returns). Publish reloads directly on rate cons. Stage short-haul West recovery carriers with live updates.
- Next 24–48 hours
- Actions: Reprice any tender crossing I-5/I-80 with buffers; migrate discretionary capacity from West to SE/TX; refresh ELD verifications for all new carriers.
🚫 What Not To Do
- Do not lowball West-touching freight: Carriers have leverage and options; delays will crush margins.
- Do not accept rigid appointment times in storm zones: Convert to windows or decline.
- Do not push light/empty equipment through WY/UT/NV winds: Safety and fall-offs will erase profit.
🧠 Broker Psychology Edge
- Sell certainty as currency: Carriers trade pennies for guaranteed reloads and clean dispatch; shippers pay premiums for proactive visibility and credible contingency plans. Package both on every tender today.
📅 This Day in History
1801: United States presidential election: A tie in the Electoral College between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr is resolved when Jefferson is elected President of the United States and Burr Vice President by the United States House of Representatives.
1819: The United States House of Representatives passes the Missouri Compromise for the first time.
1978: The Troubles: The Provisional IRA detonates an incendiary bomb at the La Mon restaurant, near Belfast, killing 12 and seriously injuring 30 others, all Protestants.
💭 Quote of the Day
"Most of the important things in the world have been accompanied by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no hope at all."
— Dale Carnegie
