π Daily Market Intelligence Report
Thursday, July 24, 2025
π Top-Line Summary
The freight market is currently defined by significant regional disruptions and weakening carrier pricing power in the spot market. Widespread, severe flooding across Missouri and parts of the Midwest is causing major operational delays and tightening regional capacity, creating short-term rate volatility. Nationally, real-time data indicates a shift from yesterday, with average paid rates for all equipment types now falling below posted rates, suggesting a softening in carrier leverage. Major carriers' earnings reports reflect ongoing market challenges, while regulatory discussions around teen truckers and the now-withdrawn speed limiter rule continue to shape long-term capacity outlooks.
π National Data Dashboard
| The van market is showing signs of softening negotiating power for carriers. The average paid rate has dipped to $1.81/mile, falling below the average posted rate of $1.84/mile. This reversal from previous trends, where carriers secured rates above asking, indicates that with over 15,000 loads available, capacity is sufficient to meet demand without driving spot prices higher. Brokers should find slightly more room in negotiations, though capacity in weather-impacted regions will be an exception. |
| Reefer market dynamics have shifted, with average paid rates ($2.17/mile) now trailing posted rates ($2.22/mile). This suggests that while seasonal demand is present, the peak pressure may be easing, giving shippers and brokers a slight advantage. With a relatively low volume of 6,848 available loads, equipment is still strategically placed, but carriers are less able to command premiums above posted rates, reflecting a better-balanced market compared to earlier in the season. |
| Despite a high volume of over 34,000 available loads, the flatbed segment is also experiencing a slight cooling in rate pressure. The average paid rate of $2.21/mile is now just under the average posted rate of $2.23/mile. This indicates that while construction and industrial demand remains robust, the available capacity is largely absorbing the volume, preventing the significant rate run-ups seen previously. This provides a more stable and predictable pricing environment for brokers. |
| $3.741/gal - The national average diesel price is holding steady, offering a degree of predictability for fuel surcharges. However, this stability does little to alleviate the ongoing pressure on carrier operating margins, remaining a key factor in their financial health and rate negotiations. |
| With paid rates now trending below posted rates across van, reefer, and flatbed, the incentive for carriers to reject contracted freight for spot opportunities is diminishing. Tender rejections are likely to decrease nationally, except in specific, highly disrupted markets like the flood-affected Midwest, where spot rates will temporarily spike and rejection rates will follow. |
β½ Diesel Price Analysis
AAA Historical Price Comparison
π¦οΈ Weather & Seasonal Intelligence
Current Major Weather Events:
- Widespread Flash Flooding and River Flooding (Central and Western Missouri (MO), including Cass, Johnson, Pettis, Saline, Cooper, and surrounding counties): A significant weather system is causing widespread, severe flooding across key Missouri freight corridors, including I-70. Expect major disruptions, road closures, and rerouting. Capacity will become extremely tight in this region, with significant delays for freight moving through the Midwest.
- Flash Flood Warning (Arapahoe and Elbert Counties, CO): Thunderstorms producing heavy rain are causing flash flooding southeast of the Denver metro area, potentially impacting freight moving on I-70 and other regional routes. This adds another point of disruption in the Mountain West.
- Regional Flood Watch (Eastern Kansas (KS) and Western Missouri (MO)): A broad flood watch remains in effect for the region, indicating that the potential for further flooding from excessive rainfall is high. This creates ongoing uncertainty and risk for freight operations throughout the Kansas City metropolitan area and beyond.
βοΈ Weather Impact Cascade
- Immediate Operational Impact: Current moderate to heavy rain in Missouri with temperatures around 74Β°F will likely continue through scattered thunderstorms forecast for July 24th at 91Β°F, maintaining road closure risks
- Secondary Market Effects: Freight originally destined for Kansas City and St. Louis is being rerouted through Oklahoma City and Memphis, tightening capacity in these secondary markets
- Regional Spillover Analysis: Colorado's flash flooding in Arapahoe and Elbert counties, currently showing moderate to heavy rain at 70Β°F, adds I-70 disruption points that compound Midwest routing challenges
- Recovery Timeline: Based on forecast showing mostly cloudy conditions by July 25th at 89Β°F in Missouri, initial road reopening may begin in 48-72 hours, but full capacity normalization requires 7-10 days for equipment repositioning
π° Financial Market Indicators
- Diesel Futures: Stable diesel futures provide some short-term cost certainty, but global energy market volatility remains a background risk for future price increases.
- Carrier Financial Health: Earnings reports from major carriers indicate a challenging market with softer demand and pressure on profits. This financial strain could lead to further market consolidation and impact smaller carriers' viability.
- Economic Indicators: Broader economic trends suggest a continued cooling in the industrial sector, which may temper freight demand, particularly for flatbed and specialized services, in the coming months.
π° Impactful News Analysis
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Market Analysis: Five Key Takeaways for July Freight Market π:
Recent market analysis confirms the trends seen in carrier earnings reports, pointing to a freight recession that has persisted through the first half of the year. For brokers, this means the market remains soft overall, but it's a 'pay-to-play' environment where securing reliable, high-quality capacity still requires competitive rates. This reinforces the need to manage customer expectations about service levels versus cost.
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Knight-Swift Earnings Reflect Market Challenges and Growth Efforts π:
Knight-Swift's latest earnings call highlights the pressures facing even the largest asset-based carriers, including softer demand and operational challenges. Their focus on strategic growth despite these headwinds indicates that major players are positioning for a future recovery. Brokers can use this insight to emphasize their value in providing flexible capacity in a market where even the largest carriers are facing constraints.
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Debate Over Teen Truckers Intensifies Amid Capacity Discussions π:
The push by the ATA to expand the teen trucker pilot program is a significant long-term capacity lever. While proponents argue it addresses the driver shortage, opponents suggest it could worsen the current capacity glut and impact safety. For brokers, this is a key trend to monitor, as any changes to driver age requirements will directly influence the future labor pool and potentially alter insurance and liability considerations.
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Speed Limiter Mandate Withdrawal Supported by Industry Groups π:
The official withdrawal of the proposed speed limiter mandate is a major victory for carriers, particularly independent operators. This removes a significant point of contention and potential operational constraint, which could have impacted transit times and driver satisfaction. Brokers can communicate this to customers as a positive development for maintaining network efficiency and capacity.
News Impact Timeline
- Immediate Operational Reality: Speed limiter mandate withdrawal removes carrier operational constraints, potentially improving driver satisfaction and equipment utilization within days
- 3-Day Market Implications: Knight-Swift earnings highlighting market challenges may trigger other carriers to reduce capacity or exit unprofitable lanes, tightening available options
- Week-Ahead Positioning: Teen trucker pilot program discussions suggest long-term capacity solutions are being considered, but won't impact current tight market conditions
- Regulatory Compliance Impacts: Withdrawal of speed limiter requirements eliminates potential transit time increases, maintaining current service level expectations
π Competitive Intelligence
- Digital Load Board Trends: The current trend of paid rates falling below posted rates suggests that initial asking prices are becoming the ceiling in negotiations, not the floor. This indicates a shift in market power toward shippers and brokers, requiring a more aggressive negotiation strategy to capitalize on the softening rates.
- Capacity Alerts: Capacity is extremely tight in the Midwest, particularly Missouri, due to severe flooding. Surplus capacity can be found in the Southeast and parts of the Texas market where conditions are more stable. Van and reefer capacity are most affected by the weather disruptions.
- Technology Disruptions: The adoption of digital freight matching and real-time visibility tools continues to accelerate as brokers and shippers seek greater efficiency and transparency in a complex market. The ability to quickly adapt to disruptions, like the current Midwest flooding, using technology is becoming a key competitive differentiator.
Demand Shift Indicators
- Regional Demand Predictions: Expect massive freight backlog release in Missouri within 72-96 hours as roads reopen, creating sustained tight capacity for 7-10 days beyond initial weather clearing
- Seasonal Transition Analysis: Reefer rates softening from $2.22 posted to $2.17 paid suggests peak produce season pressure is easing earlier than typical, indicating potential capacity availability for emergency freight movements
- Economic Leading Indicators: Carrier earnings reports showing financial strain suggest smaller carriers may exit the market, reducing available capacity even as demand softens nationally
- Capacity Flow Predictions: Equipment will likely flow away from Midwest toward Southeast and Texas markets where conditions are stable, creating secondary shortages in adjacent regions
π₯ Customer Sector Analysis
- Retail: Retail shipping remains consistent, though not at peak levels, providing stable demand for van capacity. The focus is on cost-control, making competitive pricing crucial.
- Manufacturing: Manufacturing and industrial freight demand appears to be cooling based on carrier earnings and market reports, which aligns with the softening of flatbed rates.
- Agriculture: Seasonal produce shipments continue to drive reefer demand, particularly out of the Southeast and West Coast. However, the slight easing of reefer rates suggests the absolute peak may have passed.
- Automotive: Automotive freight flows are stable but sensitive to any manufacturing slowdowns. The financial health of major carriers is a key indicator to watch for this sector.
πΊοΈ Regional & Lane Analysis
π Primary Region Focus: Midwest
The Midwest is the most volatile and opportunity-rich region for brokers today. Severe and widespread flooding across Missouri and neighboring states has created a state of emergency for logistics. This is not a market for the faint of heart; it's a high-risk, high-reward scenario where operational chaos is tightening capacity by the hour and causing rates to spike for any freight that must move through the affected corridors.
π£οΈ Key Lane Watch
Kansas City, MO β Dallas, TX:
This lane originates at the epicenter of the weather disruption. Sourcing a truck out of Kansas City today is exceptionally difficult due to road closures and carriers being trapped or avoiding the area. Shippers are facing significant backlogs, creating desperation for reliable service.
St. Louis, MO β Chicago, IL:
While not as severely impacted as western Missouri, St. Louis is experiencing significant disruption from flooding on key arteries like I-70. Freight moving north to Chicago faces reroutes and delays, tightening capacity on a normally high-volume lane.
π¨ Actionable Alerts
Rate Spike Warnings:
- All freight originating in or moving through Missouri and eastern Kansas.
- Lanes out of the Denver, CO area may see short-term spikes due to localized flooding.
Capacity Shortage Alerts:
- A critical shortage of all equipment types exists in the central Midwest, centered on Missouri. The situation is most acute for van and reefer freight caught in the disruption.
Opportunity Zones:
- Brokers who can successfully execute loads out of the flood-affected Midwest can achieve exceptionally high margins.
- The Southeast continues to offer high volumes of predictable, albeit lower-margin, freight.
π― Strategic Recommendations for Today
πΌ For Customer Sales:
Narrative: Communicate the severity of the Midwest weather proactively. Explain that this is a regional crisis impacting all carriers and that securing capacity requires significant rate premiums but ensures their freight will move. Frame our service as a solution to a critical supply chain disruption.
Action: Contact all customers with freight scheduled to move through the Midwest in the next 72 hours. Offer to review routing and pricing, and present solutions for recovery and rerouting.
π For Carrier Reps:
Sourcing Focus: Focus all available resources on communicating with trusted carriers in and around the Midwest. Understand their operational status, equipment location, and willingness to operate under current conditions. Avoid broad load board postings and use direct relationships.
Negotiation Leverage: The leverage is in providing safe, clear, and profitable loads. For carriers hesitant to enter the area, offer premium rates, quick pay, and firm commitments. For carriers looking to exit, be prepared to pay their price but lock them in quickly.
π Customer Communication Scripts
Rate Increase Justification
Opening Script: "Based on today's market conditions showing paid rates falling below posted rates across all equipment types, we're seeing a unique opportunity where carriers are accepting lower rates than their initial asks. However, the severe flooding across Missouri has created a two-tier market where standard lanes are softening while disrupted corridors are commanding 30-50% premiums."
Value Proposition: We can secure competitive rates on stable lanes while providing guaranteed capacity solutions in the disrupted Midwest where other brokers are failing to deliver
Urgency Creator: The flood situation is creating a 72-hour window where capacity decisions made today determine service reliability for the next week
Objection Handler: While national rates are softening, your freight moves through the exact corridors experiencing severe weather disruption. The alternative is delayed shipments and customer service failures that cost far more than the rate premium
Capacity Shortage Communication
Opening Script: "Current capacity indicators show extremely tight conditions in the Midwest with carriers avoiding Missouri entirely, which means any freight touching these corridors requires immediate action and premium positioning to secure reliable service."
Value Proposition: Our direct carrier relationships and proactive routing solutions ensure your freight moves when competitors' loads are sitting on docks waiting for available trucks
Urgency Creator: Carrier earnings reports show financial strain making smaller carriers less reliable - securing capacity with financially stable partners is critical for the next 7 days
Objection Handler: The capacity shortage isn't theoretical - it's happening right now with specific weather events. Waiting for rates to normalize means risking complete service failures
π
This Day in History
1148: Louis VII of France lays siege to Damascus during the Second Crusade.
1847: After 17 months of travel, Brigham Young leads 148 Mormon pioneers into Salt Lake Valley, resulting in the establishment of Salt Lake City.
1967: During an official state visit to Canada, French President Charles de Gaulle declares to a crowd of over 100,000 in Montreal: Vive le QuΓ©bec libre! ("Long live free Quebec!"); the statement angered the Canadian government and many Anglophone Canadians.
π Joke of the Day
What time did the man go to the dentist? Tooth hurt-y.
